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Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from December 2016 through November 2017 include: Arkansas, Quebec, Brazil, Finland, Denmark, Libya, Niger, Gabon, Madagascar, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, northern Russia, Inner Mongolia, Thailand, western Cambodia, Papua New Guinea, and eastern Australia. Water surpluses are forecast for: Idaho, Central California, southwestern Zambia, the Okavango Delta in Botswana, northeastern Afghanistan, and between the Irtysh and Yenisei Rivers in Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 March 2017.
The March 2017 Outlook indicates drier than normal conditions in southern California and eastern Brazil, and wetter than normal conditions in Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, Paraguay, and Namibia and neighboring African nations. The forecast for many parts of the world is for much warmer than normal conditions including: Europe, Russia, Yemen, Queensland (Australia), Madagascar, Brazil, Cuba, and southwestern Mexico.
We are experiencing the warmest weather patterns recorded in the modern record. Do our grandchildren think it is warmer than usual? Would our grandparents have felt that it was generally colder during their lifetime? Can we quantify their generational experience? An analysis of three overlapping statistical baselines allows comparison of three climatological periods, 1910 to 1970, 1930 to 1990, and 1950 to 2010.
The overall progression of water anomalies forecast through October 2017 indicates that widespread water deficits will persist throughout the Middle East, first diminishing in severity through April – with a significant reduction in the extent of exceptional deficits – before increasing in both extent and severity thereafter, particularly on the Arabian Peninsula, southern Iraq, and Iran.
Water conditions observed in the region through November and forecast through April are characterized by exceptional anomalies, both surpluses and deficits, while the forecast for the latter six months of the 12-month forecast (May through October) shows a decrease in the intensity of anomalies. From February through April surpluses are forecast from Shanghai through northern Hunan. Extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast for southern Mongolia, western Inner Mongolia (China), eastern Yunnan, and northern Taiwan. Moderate deficits are expected in Ningxia, southern Shaanxi, Gansu, eastern Sichuan, the Liaodong Peninsula, eastern Guangxi, and Guangdong. Both deficits and surpluses reaching exceptional intensity will continue to emerge in China’s western half.
Drier than normal conditions will persist in many parts of northern Russia from the White Sea through the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses will continue to emerge in northwestern Kazakhstan, down the middle of Kazakhstan through Karagandy Region, and in Kyrgyzstan. From May through July deficits will increase southwest of Russia’s Yamal Peninsula, exceptional surpluses will emerge between the Irtysh and Yenisei Rivers, and moderate deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Though the extent of water deficits in South America is expected to shrink overall February through April, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast in eastern Brazil as well as pockets in some western states. Deficits in Bolivia are forecast to shrink in extent but large pockets will persist, and the extent of deficits in Chile will shrink slightly. Surpluses will continue to emerge in central and northeastern Argentina; Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; northern Peru; and eastern Colombia. From May through June deficits will persist in eastern Brazil but much of the Amazon Basin will transition to near-normal. Deficits along Peru’s coast will increase in intensity, becoming exceptional.
The water forecast indicates deficits in: central Quebec and its southern border with Ontario; Northumberland County, New Brunswick; southern Newfoundland; northeastern Manitoba along Hudson Bay; northwestern British Columbia and central BC near Prince George; northwestern and central Alberta; northeastern Saskatchewan into northern Manitoba; and northwestern Ontario. Surpluses are forecast around the southern shore of James Bay and west into Ontario; west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba; surrounding Lake Churchill Saskatchewan; and scattered throughout southern British Columbia. After April predominantly deficit conditions are forecast.
The extent of exceptional water deficits from the Ohio River Valley to the Gulf is expected to recede but exceptional deficits will persist in eastern Oklahoma, northern Arkansas, Missouri, and west-central Illinois. Widespread surpluses will continue to emerge in the West with particular intensity in Idaho and northern Nevada. Moderate surpluses are forecast for much of California, particularly Central California.