The outlook for Canada from July 2015 through June 2016 (below) indicates widespread water deficits across the country with large pockets of exceptional deficits expected in parts of the Canadian Prairie and eastern Ontario into Quebec. The map is based on observed data through September 2015 and forecasts issued the last week of September 2015.

Some crop production has already been impacted by drought. Total Canadian wheat production is expected to fall 11.4 percent from previous year levels, and canola production is expected to decline 12.9 percent. Conditions have been especially hard in western provinces, such as Alberta, where a disaster was declared after more than 80 percent of farmers reported sustaining crop loss. Alberta's September economic loss is forecast to be between US$525 million and US$675 million.

As indicated in the 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period, exceptional deficits currently observed in eastern Ontario into Quebec may persist for the remainder of the forecast period.

Surpluses may emerge in British Columbia through March, while large pockets of the rest of the country may experience exceptional drought conditions.

From April through June water deficits of varying severity are forecast from British Columbia eastward through western Quebec. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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