The dominance of deficit conditions in North China including the North China Plain and Mongolia can be seen in the 12-month composite map for July 2015 through June 2016 (below), with some areas experiencing both deficits and surpluses. The map is based on observed data through September 2015 and forecasts issued the last week of September 2015.

Widespread surpluses are forecast for Southeast China, which may be of exceptional severity in Fujian and along the Pearl River (Zhujiang).

Drought in Mongolia has taken a toll on crop production - estimates for the 2015 wheat production are 50 percent below a record 2014 harvest and 40 percent below the previous five-year average. Nearby in China's Inner Mongolia autonomous region, 3.6 million people have been affected by the drought, with more than 1 million deemed at high risk; direct economic losses have been estimated at 6.5 billion yuan ($1.02 billion). In east China's Fujian and Zhejiang provinces heavy rains from Typhoon Dujuan caused economic losses of 1.4 billion yuan (250 million U.S. dollars). 

Deficits in the North as well as surpluses in the South are forecast to diminish in severity in the latter part of the forecast period, as seen in the 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period. Likewise, the drought in South Korea – which has been persistent, exceptional, and widespread – is expected to diminish.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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