Widespread water deficits may persist in much of Continental Europe as seen in the 12-month map (below), while surpluses may continue in Ireland, Scotland, and northern Sweden. The map is based on observed data through September 2015 and forecasts issued the last week of September 2015.

Hail, high temperatures, and lack of rain are expected to reduce hops production in Germany by 27 percent. In general yield forecasts are low for summer crops in the EU, but particularly in central European regions. In Poland, concern mounted over the possibility of  blackouts as water levels in lakes and rivers decreased. Drought-related crop losses were also reported in Poland where raspberry prices have doubled in the EU's major producer. Low levels on the Rhine River continue to be reflected in higher freight rates in the Basel-Rotterdam area.  

Though deficits are expected to persist in much of Europe for the next few months, they may diminish and transition to moderate surpluses, as seen in the 3-month composites (below) in Central Europe, particularly Germany, January through June 2016.

In contrast, moderate water deficits are expected to persist in the following areas: Mediterranean Spain, Italy, the Balkan Peninsula, and Finland. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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