Water deficits may continue to emerge throughout much of Mexico with particular severity and extent in southern Mexico as seen in the 12-month map (below). The map is based on observed data through September 2015 and forecasts issued the last week of September 2015.  Deficits are forecast to persist in much of Central America.

Surpluses may persist in northwest Mexico along the conjoined borders of Sonora and Chihuahua, down through Sinaloa where severe surpluses may persist. 

Drought impacts in Mexico and Central America have been noted in the media. Hydropower production in Panama has been reduced by 20 percent. Maize production in Mexico's Guerrero state is expected to be 570,000 tonnes less that 2014 in what the Secretary of Rural Development has called the worst drought in 70 years. Other regions of Mexico are also suffering water shortages. A 450-year old church has emerged as water levels in a Chiapas reservoir dropped 80 feet.

The 3-month maps (below) for the same time period shows the evolving conditions in more detail. The extent of exceptional deficits is forecast to decrease somewhat until March, then increase through the remainder of the forecast period. Some areas, like Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, may experience both deficits and surpluses. Though drought is forecast for all of Central America, the extent, severity, and persistence may be most acute in: Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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