Watching: United States and Canada; Mexico and Central America; South America; Europe; Africa; Middle East; South Asia; Southeast Asia and the Pacific; China, Mongolia, and the Korean Peninsula; Australia

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in August 2015 and running through July 2016 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

Regional details are available in ISciences' Global Water Monitor & Forecast November 16, 2015 (pdf).

Overall, the November Watch List does not indicate significant changes from last month’s Watch List.

United States and Canada: Deficits in California may persist for a few months before beginning to transition to moderate surpluses. Deficits may also persist across the northern US from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. Surpluses are forecast in the Southern Plains and in the Southeast. In contrast, widespread deficits are expected to emerge in the Mississippi Valley from the Gulf of Mexico northward to Minnesota; and, from Canada’s Central Plains eastward through Ontario and into Quebec.

Mexico and Central America: Water deficits may continue to emerge throughout much of Mexico with greatest severity and extent in southern Mexico. Surpluses may persist in the northwest along the conjoined borders of Sonora and Chihuahua, and in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered deficits and some surpluses are forecast in Central America.

South America: Exceptional water deficits may persist across northern Brazil, coastal Peru, western Bolivia, and northern and southern Chile. Surpluses may emerge in Ecuador and northern Peru. Surpluses are also forecast for Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina, and are expected to increase in extent and severity with exceptional surpluses in central Argentina.

Europe: Widespread water deficits may persist in much of Continental Europe, particularly Eastern Europe; while some surpluses may continue in Scotland, Ireland, Iceland, and northern Sweden. Deficits may transition to surpluses in Central Europe. However, Spain, Greece, southern Germany, and Finland may experience persistent deficits.

Middle East: Widespread and severe water deficits may emerge in Iran and may dominate much of the Arabian Peninsula. Deficits may also emerge in western Turkey.

Africa: Exceptional water deficits may dominate North Africa, with both deficits and surpluses in some areas. Deficits may persist in coastal West Africa and southern Africa. Exceptional surpluses are expected in East Africa, particularly in Kenya and Tanzania.

South Asia: Water deficits may continue to emerge in southern Afghanistan, Pakistan, and throughout India, with some areas experiencing both deficits and surpluses. Surpluses are expected to continue in northeastern Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific may continue to experience moderate to exceptional water deficits in the coming months. Deficits may be most persistent and severe in Southeast Asia, eastern Borneo, the Philippines, and the island of New Guinea

China, Mongolia, and the Korean Peninsula: Widespread water deficits may continue in North China including the North China Plain and in Mongolia, though some areas may experience both deficits and surpluses. Widespread surpluses are forecast for Southeast China. Deficits may diminish in South Korea; surpluses are expected to continue in North Korea.

Australia: Though deficit conditions currently dominate, the forecast indicates a slow transition to surpluses in the north and along central rivers. Exceptional water deficits may persist in Tasmania, Victoria, southern South Australia, and from Perth southward for much of the forecast period. Moderate deficits may persist in North Island, New Zealand.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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