Canada: Water deficits forecast across the country

The outlook for Canada from August 2015 through July 2016 (below) indicates widespread water deficits across the country with large pockets of exceptional deficits expected in parts of eastern Ontario into Quebec.

In Alberta, crop insurance payments are expected to increase dramatically over last year, due to drought and hail damage. Drought and wildfires spurred the provincial government to include a $725 million disaster fund to its new budget. Experts say advanced cropping practices across the Canadian Prairie prevented what could have been even worse drought losses to agricultural output. 

As indicated in the 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period, exceptional deficits in eastern Ontario into Quebec may persist. Surpluses may emerge in British Columbia February through April and in an eastward line from James Bay, while much of the rest of the country may experience drought conditions. From May through July water deficits of varying severity are forecast for nearly all of Canada. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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