Widespread water deficits may persist in North China including the North China Plain and Mongolia, as seen in the 12-month composite map for August 2015 through July 2016 (below), with some areas experiencing both deficits and surpluses.

Widespread surpluses are forecast for Southeast China, which may be of exceptional severity in Fujian, along the Pearl River (Zhujiang), and at the conjoined borders of Guizhou, Hunan, and Guangxi. Surpluses may also persist in North Korea.

Rare winter floods in China affected 253,000 people in Hunan in what was described by the Hunan Provincial Commission for Disaster Reduction as the most severe winter flooding since 1961Flooding resulted in economic losses totaling US$63 million, damaging over 19,000 hectares of farmland and forcing relocation of nearly 11,000 residents. In Zhejiang province, 25 people died in landslides caused by flooding. First drought, then floods have reduced vegetable harvests in North Korea, threatening a shortage of the national dish - kimchi.

Deficits in the North as well as surpluses in the South are forecast to diminish in severity in the latter part of the forecast period, as seen in the 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period. Likewise, the drought in South Korea – which has been persistent, exceptional, and widespread – is expected to diminish.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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