Overall, water deficits may dominate much of Continental Europe as seen in the 12-month map (below), while surpluses may continue in Ireland, Scotland, and northern Sweden. 

In Poland, 80 million Euro has been awarded in compensation for drought-affected agriculture, nearly 5 million of which is to blackberry growers. The German Farmers' Association expected poor harvests, especially in cereals, fruits, vegetables, sugar beet and forage maize. Drought near the Black Sea has damaged crops in Western Russian and the Ukraine during critical planting season, though it is too early to determine overall impact on crop yields. A quarter of Russia's winter crops are in poor condition, and a third of Ukraine's winter wheat and triticale are weak and thinned, comparable to conditions in 2011 which resulted in a 29 percent drop in Ukraine output. Ski resorts in the Italian Alps have been abandoned in the last few years due to lack of snow. 

The 3-month composites for the same 12-month time period (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. Deficits are expected to diminish in extent and severity in Europe for the next few months, and then transition to moderate surpluses in Central Europe, particularly Germany, February through April 2016.

In contrast, moderate to severe water deficits are expected to persist in the following areas: Spain, southern France, Italy, the Balkan Peninsula, Eastern Europe, Western Russia, and Finland.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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