While water surpluses may persist in northeastern Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, as seen in the 12-month composite map (below), the remainder of South Asia is expected to experience water deficits.

Flooding in India's southeastern state of Tamil Nadu and in Sri Lanka has killed 70 people, submerged the Indian city of Chennai, and affected 80,000 in Sri Lanka. Elsewhere in India, many regions are experiencing drought: 50 of 75 districts in Uttar Pradesh, 35 of 51 in Madhya Pradesh,  25 of 27 in Chhattisgarh, 27 of 30 in Karnataka, and much of Telangana. In Pakistan, where per capita water availability has decreased by 80 percent since 1951, the situation is particularly critical in Balochistan.

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. Of particular interest are the widespread and exceptional water deficits forecast for much of India November 2015 through January 2016. These deficits are expected to diminish in extent and severity February through April, but may persist in the north, in Gujarat, and from Goa eastward through Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. In the May through July time frame deficits in India are expected to diminish in most places, though moderate deficits may emerge in central India.

Deficits are expected to emerge throughout much of Afghanistan May through July.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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