Watching: United States and Canada; Mexico and Central America; South America; Europe; Africa; Middle East; Central Asia and Russia; South Asia; Southeast Asia and the Pacific; China, Mongolia, Korean Peninsula; Australia.

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in September 2015 and running through August 2016 using observed temperature and precipitation data through November 2015 and forecasts issued the last week of November 2015.

Regional details are available in ISciences' Global Water Monitor & Forecast December 15, 2015 (pdf).

United States and Canada: Water deficits are forecast across the northern US from eastern Oregon to Maine, with greatest severity in the Great Lakes Region. Widespread and severe deficits are also forecast in the Mississippi Valley from Minnesota to the Gulf of Mexico. Surpluses are forecast in California, the Southern Plains, and in the Southeast. Both deficits and surpluses are expected in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and East Texas. The forecast for Canada indicates widespread water deficits across the country with large pockets of exceptional deficits expected in parts of eastern Ontario into Quebec and in northern British Columbia and Alberta.

Mexico and Central America: Water deficits are forecast to continue in Mexico with greatest severity and extent in the south. Surpluses are forecast in the Yucatan Peninsula. Deficits are forecast in southern Guatemala; some scattered surpluses are forecast elsewhere in Central America.

South America: Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern Brazil, Suriname, French Guiana, coastal Peru, western Bolivia, and northern and southern Chile. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in Ecuador and northern Peru. Surpluses are also forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina, and are expected to increase in extent and severity with exceptional surpluses in central Argentina.

Europe: Water deficits are forecast to emerge throughout Mediterranean Europe and increase in extent and severity in southern France and on the Iberian Peninsula. Deficits are forecast in Finland, the Baltics, Eastern Europe, and European Russia. Surpluses are forecast for Ireland, Scotland, Netherlands, northern Germany, western Czechoslovakia, and northern Sweden.

Africa: Exceptional water deficits are forecast to dominate North Africa, with both deficits and surpluses in some areas. Deficits are forecast to persist in coastal West Africa and southern Africa. Exceptional surpluses are expected in East Africa, particularly in Kenya and Tanzania. Surpluses are also forecast for western Burkina Faso.

Middle East: Widespread moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast across much of the Middle East and Turkey.

Central Asia: Water surpluses are forecast in northern Kyrgyzstan, and along rivers in Kazakhstan. Across the border into the center of Russia widespread surpluses are forecast for an area from the Ural Mountains to the Central Siberian Plateau. Moderate water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and eastern Tajikistan.

South Asia: Water deficits are forecast in southern Afghanistan, Pakistan, and most of India, with some areas experiencing both deficits and surpluses. Surpluses are forecast in southeastern India, Sri Lanka, northeastern Afghanistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast for many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific in the coming months. Deficits are expected to be most persistent, widespread, and severe in Southeast Asia, eastern Borneo, the Philippines, and the island of New Guinea.

China, Mongolia, Korean Peninsula: Moderate water deficits are expected to continue in North China including the North China Plain and in Mongolia, though some areas may experience both deficits and surpluses. Widespread surpluses are forecast for Southeast China. Deficits are forecast to diminish in South Korea; surpluses are expected to continue in North Korea.

Australia: The forecast indicates a predominance of water surpluses in the north and along central rivers. Exceptional drought is forecast to persist in Tasmania, Victoria, southern South Australia, and from Perth southward for much of the forecast period. The persistence of moderate drought in northern South Island, New Zealand and in North Island is also in the forecast.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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