Surpluses are forecast in northern Kyrgyzstan and along rivers in Kazakhstan as shown in the 12-month composite map (below). Across the border into the center of Russia widespread surpluses are forecast for an area from the Ural Mountains to the Central Siberian Plateau. Moderate water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and eastern Tajikistan. 

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. Water deficits are forecast to emerge in northern Kazakhstan December through February with some areas experiencing both deficits and surpluses. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan June through August. Both deficits and surpluses are expected in Russia between the Urals and the Central Siberian Plateau June through August. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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