Water deficits are forecast for much of Mediterranean Europe, southern France, and the Iberian Peninsula, as seen in the 12-month map (below). Deficits are also forecast for Finland, the Baltics, Eastern Europe, and European Russia. Surpluses are forecast for Ireland, Scotland, Netherlands, northern Germany, western Czech Republic, and northern Sweden.

According to Spanish environmental group Ecologists in Action, Spain has lost 20% of its fresh water in the last 20 years. "In some areas around the Mediterranean basin, 40% reductions have been recorded," warns expert Santiago Martín Barajas. Flooding in the United Kingdom and Ireland prompted evacuations in Cumbria, trapped motorists in the Lake District, caused power outages and transportation disruptions in Ireland, and contributed to landslides in Scotland. In southwest Norway houses were swept away in the worst flooding since records began in 1897 according to the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate.

The 3-month composites for the same 12-month time period (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. The December through February map shows increasing deficits in Mediterranean Europe, France, Spain, and Portugal; emerging water surpluses in Ireland, Scotland, Central Europe; and a transition from deficit to surplus in Norway. Deficits are forecast to re-emerge in the Baltics March through May, and deficits are forecast for much of Europe June through August. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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