The forecast through August 2016, as seen in the 12-month composite map (below) indicates water deficits in southern Afghanistan, Pakistan, and most of India, with some areas experiencing both deficits and surpluses. Surpluses are forecast in southeastern India, Sri Lanka, northeastern Afghanistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh.

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. Of particular interest are the widespread and exceptional water deficits forecast for much of India December 2015 through February 2016, with the notable exception of moderate to exceptional surpluses in southeastern India. Deficits are expected to diminish in extent March through May, however, exceptional and widespread deficits are forecast in Goa, and from Gujarat northward. From June through August deficits in India are expected to diminish, and moderate surpluses are forecast for the southern half of the country. Moderate surpluses may also emerge along the northern portion of the Indus River in Pakistan. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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