Moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast through August 2016 for many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific in the coming months, as shown in the 12-month map (below). Deficits are expected to be most persistent, widespread, and severe in Southeast Asia, eastern Borneo, and the island of New Guinea.

As seen in the 3-month maps (below), water deficits are forecast to gradually diminish in extent and severity December through August. Indonesia and Malaysia are forecast to transition to moderate surpluses December through February. Thereafter, surpluses are forecast to persist on Java, but deficits are expected to return to the Malay Peninsula and northern Sumatra. It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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