WSIM composite water anomaly index map based on three months of forecast data (April - June 2015).

WSIM composite water anomaly index map based on three months of forecast data (April - June 2015).

Abnormally heavy rainfall in March has continued through April to-date in northern India.  "India received nearly double its average rainfall this March, making it the wettest March in 48 years, and the second wettest since record-keeping began in the country. Rains and hailstorms have continued into April, compounding crop losses in many states across north and central India."[1]

The map depicts the WSIM composite water anomaly index based on three months of forecast data (April - June 2015). Portions of Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, and southern China are forecast to experience exceptional water surpluses during this period, with portions of North Central Afghanistan continuing to see exceptional surpluses into November 2015.  This raises the possibility of broad area flooding, particularly if the monsoon begins while the ground is already saturated from earlier surpluses.

This blog post presents results from our April “WSIM Global Water Monitor and Forecast” report. This report is based on observed temperature and precipitation through March 2015 and an ensemble of 28 temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by NOAA's CFSv2 the last week of March 2015.

[1] The Times of India, April 15, 2015.  “Global warming behind freak rains: Top Met official” http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/global-warming/Global-warming-behind-freak-rains-Top-Met-official/articleshow/46927094.cms

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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