Composite water anomaly index map for Venezuela Dec 2014-Nov 2015 (Location of Guri Dam highlighted). 

Composite water anomaly index map for Venezuela Dec 2014-Nov 2015 (Location of Guri Dam highlighted). 

The map is based on 3 months of observed data (Dec14-Feb15) and nine months of forecast data (Mar15-Nov15).  It shows that Venezuela is expected to experience widespread deficits, with large portions of the country experiencing exceptional deficits conditions (return periods greater than 40 years).  These areas include the heavily populated northern coast of Venezuela and the watershed for the Guri Dam (starred on the map) that provides 65% of Venezuela’s electricity supply.  The water levels at the Guri Dam are currently at their lowest levels since 2010 and have been declining rapidly since early December 2014.  Venezuela’s economy is already severely stressed due to low oil prices and mismanagement.  Additional burdens due to drought and electricity shortages would add to those stresses.

This blog post presents results from our March 2015 “WSIM Global Water Monitor and Forecast” report. This report is based on observed temperature and precipitation through February 2015 and an ensemble of 28 temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by NOAA's CFSv2 the last week of February 2015.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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