Precipitation outlook for April 2015

  • Surpluses in Northern India/Pakistan. There has already been flooding in Jammu & Kashmir due to excess rains in March. This suggests a good probability of excess rains in April.
  • Continued deficits for the Colorado River Basin.
  • Some potential drought relief in Southern Brazil.

Precipitation outlook for April 2015 based on an ensemble of 28 NOAA CFSv2 seasonal forecasts issued the last week of March 2015. Blues indicate more precipitation than usual, reds less precipitation than usual. Units are in “return period” (the inverse of the probability of seeing an anomaly of that magnitude or worse).

This blog post presents results from our "WSIM Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts" report issued on April 2, 2015. This report current includes forecasts for April 2015 through December 2015 based on NOAA's CFSv2 forecasts issued March 25-31, 2015.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2017 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.