More than two decades of drought have caused substantial problems in much of Iran, with dried up rivers, dead trees, and depleted underground water supplies. Some experts predict that areas in Southern Iran may become uninhabitable if the drought persists[1].  Current forecasts from WSIM indicate continued exceptional deficits through October 2015, with an area in Southeastern Iraq remaining in exceptional deficit into November 2015. The only portion of the country not showing serious deficits is the area around the Dasht-e Kavir (salt desert), which typically gets very little rain or snow. The figure depicts the composite water anomaly index for a six-month period from June through November 2015. For the most part this pattern continues through January 2016, the result of the serious deficits through October.

This blog post presents results from our May “WSIM Global Water Monitor and Forecast” report. This report is based on observed temperature and precipitation through April 2015 and an ensemble of 28 temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by NOAA's CFSv2 the last week of April 2015.

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for Jun through Nov 2015

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for Jun through Nov 2015

[1] New York Times. May 5, 2015. The Empty River of Time. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/06/world/middleeast/iran-our-man-in-tehran.html

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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