WATCHING: United States and Northern Mexico, Southern Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, South America, Coastal West Africa, Southern Africa, Tanzania, Iran, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in April 2015 and running through March 2016 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

More detailed posts on each of the following regions will be available soon.

United States and Northern Mexico: Exceptional water deficit conditions are forecast to persist in California and the Pacific Northwest. Surpluses may begin to appear in California in December. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for a broad swath of the Southwest extending into northwestern Mexico, and in the US Central Plains and Midwest.

Southern Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Widespread exceptional deficit conditions are forecast to persist and spread in southern Mexico, Central America, and parts of the Caribbean.

South America: Exceptional deficits may continue across much of northern South America. Exceptional deficits are also forecast along much of the Pacific Coast, and may be particularly persistent in Peru and Chile. Surpluses are forecast for southern Brazil and Paraguay beginning in the July-September time frame and then expanding into northern Argentina and Uruguay in the October 2015-March 2016 time frame.

Africa: Exceptional deficits are forecast to persist and intensify in a swath of countries in coastal West Africa from southern Liberia to Angola, and may continue to emerge in southern Africa. Exceptional surpluses are expected in Tanzania and surrounding areas.

Iran: Widespread deficits may continue to dominate much of Iran.

South Asia: Our forecast for the monsoon season as a whole (May-October 2015) calls for exceptional regional deficits centered on central Uttar Pradesh, eastern Madhya Pradesh and northwest Chhattisgarh, and northeast Karnataka and northwest Andhra Pradesh.  The forecast also calls for moderate surpluses in southern Odisha and northern Andhra Pradesh. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific:  Deficits in Southeast Asia are forecast to persist, particularly in Thailand. Similarly, exceptional deficits are forecast for Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian province of Papua. Deficits may also continue in the Philippines.

NOTE: We are still watching deficits in Europe, but the forecast has not substantially changed since our last post.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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