The current forecast indicates that water deficits may persist in Coastal West Africa through March 2016, as seen in the first map below. The areas affected by these deficits are basically consistent with our prior post, though the deficits may persist longer than previously expected.

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for April 2015 through March 2016
(12-month)

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.) Moderate water deficits are forecast throughout Coastal West Africa in July and August 2015 with some areas of exceptional deficits (40-year). By October exceptional deficits are expected to affect coastal regions of Liberia, Cote D’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon, and may extend farther down the coast in the months to follow.

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for April 2015 through March 2016
(3-Month)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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