We are now half way through the South Asian Monsoon season. The map below is based on observed temperature and precipitation for May, June, and July 2015; and, forecasts for the August, September, and October 2015 issued the last week of July 2015. Almost all of southern India is forecast to have at least moderate deficits. Exceptional deficits are forecast for: a large region in south-central India including northern Karnataka, Telangana, and northern Andhra Pradesh; the northern border region between Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh; portions of Odisha; and, southern Tamil Nadu. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Indus River Basin, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.

Though drought in India continues to claim its victims, flooding in Myanmar and Pakistan have had the most significant impacts. In Myanmar one million people have been affected since June in floods covering nearly all of the country. In Pakistan 226 deaths have been reported in the flooding and nearly two million people have been affected.

The map below depicts water anomalies for each half of the monsoon season. The forecast for August through October calls for water deficits throughout all of India. Moderate deficits emerge in eastern Nepal and may complicate earthquake recovery efforts. Surpluses are forecast to continue in the Indus River Basin, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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