Widespread deficits may continue in North China including the North China Plain and in Mongolia, though some areas may experience both deficits and surpluses. Widespread surpluses are forecast for Southeast China and southern Honshu, Japan. Deficits are forecast for northern Honshu and for Hokkaido, Japan. Exceptional deficits may persist in South Korea before diminishing somewhat in severity beginning in February 2016. The 12-month map below is based on observed data through August and forecasts issued the last week of August, 2015.

In Japan, 3 million people were advised to evacuate after heavy flooding killed 7 and released contaminated water from a shuttered nuclear power plant. The drought in northern China sparked a protest by 200 ethnic Mongolian herders demanding government relief in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. 

In South Korea the drought has been persistent, exceptional, and widespread as seen in the 24- and 36-months maps below based on observed data through August 2015. Earlier this year the planting season was delayed in key crop regions and boats were stranded on dried-up lakes. Though the drought has been ongoing in North Korea as well forecasts indicate that it will persist in South Korea.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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