Watching: United States and Canada; Mexico and Central America; South America; Europe; Africa; Middle East; Central Asia and Russia; South Asia; Southeast Asia and the Pacific; Australia.

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in October 2015 and running through September 2016 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and forecasts issued the last week of December, 2015.

Regional details are available in ISciences' Global Water Monitor & Forecast January 13, 2015 (pdf).

United States and Canada: Water deficits are forecast across the northern US and most of Canada with greatest severity in the British Columbia, Alberta, eastern Ontario, and Quebec. Within the United States, widespread and severe deficits are forecast for Montana, Wyoming, Michigan, much of the Mississippi Valley, and New England. Surpluses are forecast for the Southern Plains, east Texas, coastal North and South Carolina, and eastern Florida. Both deficits and surpluses are expected in in the Pacific Northwest, the Southeast, Missouri and Arkansas.

Mexico and Central America: Water deficits are forecast to continue in Mexico with greatest severity and extent in the south. Surpluses are forecast for the Northwest and the Yucatan Peninsula. Deficits are forecast in southern Guatemala, and are likely to emerge throughout Central America in the latter portion of the forecast period.

South America: Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern Brazil, Suriname, French Guiana, coastal Peru, western Bolivia, and northern and southern Chile. Surpluses are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina.

Europe: Water deficits are forecast to emerge throughout Mediterranean Europe with greatest extent and severity in eastern Spain, Corsica, Sardinia, northern Italy, and southern Greece. Deficits are forecast in Finland, the Baltics, Eastern Europe, and European Russia. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for Ireland, northern United Kingdom, and Zealand, Denmark.

Africa: Exceptional water deficits are forecast to dominate Northwest Africa, coastal West Africa and southern Africa. Exceptional deficits in northwest Ethiopia are forecast to persist through May, 2016. Exceptional surpluses are expected in East Africa, particularly in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in Ethiopia, Sudan, and the Sahel during the latter portion of the forecast period.

Middle East: Widespread moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast across much of the Middle East and western Turkey. Surpluses are forecast along the Iraq-Iran border and a small region in northeast Turkey.

Central Asia: Exceptional water surpluses are forecast along rivers in Kazakhstan. Across the border into the center of Russia widespread surpluses are forecast for an area from the Ural Mountains to the Central Siberian Plateau. Moderate water deficits are expected in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan and are forecast to intensify in the latter portion of the forecast period.

South Asia: Water deficits are forecast through March 2016 for southern Afghanistan, Pakistan, and most of India, with some areas experiencing both deficits and surpluses. Surpluses are forecast in southeastern India. During the latter portion of the forecast period, a large swath of central and western India is forecast to transition to moderate surpluses while deficits emerge in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast for many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific in the coming months. Deficits are expected to be most persistent, widespread, and severe in Southeast Asia, Sumatra, eastern Borneo, the southern Philippines, and the island of New Guinea.

Australia: The forecast indicates water surpluses in the north and along central rivers, with exceptional surpluses in northwest basins. Exceptional drought is forecast to persist in Tasmania, Victoria, southern South Australia, and from Perth southward for much of the forecast period. The persistence of moderate drought in northern South Island, New Zealand and in North Island is also in the forecast.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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