Water deficits are forecast to continue emerging in Mexico with greatest severity and extent in the south, as shown in the 12-month map (below). Surpluses are forecast to persist in the Yucatan Peninsula and re-emerge in Sonora. Moderate deficits are forecast to persist in southern Guatemala; some scattered surpluses are forecast elsewhere in Central America.

The 3-month maps (below) for the same time period shows the evolving conditions in more detail. Water deficits in southern Mexico are forecast to persist through March, moderate through June, and re-intensify July through September. Deficits may emerge on the Baja Peninsula, peaking in intensity from April through June and persisting through September. Surpluses are forecast for the Yucatan Peninsula and will be most widespread April through June.

Deficits are forecast to persist in southern Guatemala. By the end of the forecast period – July through September – abnormal to severe (3-20 year return period) water deficits are forecast for much of Central America.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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