Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses to persist in Volga Basin

October 26, 2016

The Big Picture
The 12-month map (below) indicates widespread water deficits, including exceptional deficits (greater than 40 years) forecast in Russia from west of the Yamal Peninsula through the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses are forecast in central Kazakhstan and in eastern Kyrgyzstan. Both deficits and surpluses are forecast for Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Kazakhstan.

Forecast Breakdown
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

Exceptional deficits are forecast October through December in Russia from west of the Yamal Peninsula through the Central Siberian Plateau. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Volga River Basin, in eastern Kyrgyzstan, and in central and northeastern Kazakhstan. Surpluses will emerge near the Gulf of Ob and in a vast path leading southwest. Exceptional water deficits observed July through October in eastern Turkmenistan and eastern Uzbekistan are forecast to diminish in severity to moderate deficits. Both deficits and surpluses are forecast for Tajikistan.

From January through March, aforementioned exceptional water deficits in Russia will persist but diminish somewhat in extent and severity, as will surpluses in the Volga Basin. Conditions from the Gulf of Ob and southwest of the Gulf are forecast to transition from moderate surplus to near normal. Deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will diminish slightly. Surpluses are expected to persist in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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