Watching: United States and Canada; Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean; South America; Europe; Africa; Middle East; Central Asia and Russia; South Asia; East Asia; Southeast Asia and the Pacific; Australia.

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in November 2015 and running through October 2016 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

Regional details are available in ISciences' Global Water Monitor & Forecast February 15, 2015 (pdf).

United States and Canada: Widespread moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in the US for Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, much of the Mississippi Valley, and New England. Surpluses are forecast for the Southern Plains, east Texas, and southern Florida. Both deficits and surpluses are expected in in the Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Southeast. The outlook for Canada indicates widespread water deficits across the country with pockets of exceptional deficits expected in parts of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Water deficits are forecast to emerge on the Baja Peninsula and will continue to emerge in southern Mexico with exceptional severity. Surpluses are forecast to re-emerge in Sonora and persist in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and central Cuba. Moderate deficits are forecast to persist in southern Guatemala, and exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Jamaica in the latter portion of the forecast period.

South America: Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern South America. Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina, and are expected to increase in extent throughout the forecast period.

Europe: Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast to emerge throughout Mediterranean Europe with greatest extent and severity in eastern Spain, Corsica, Sardinia, Italy, southern Greece, and Crete. Deficits are also forecast in Finland and the Baltics. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for Ireland and northern United Kingdom.

Africa: Water deficits are forecast to dominate Northwest Africa, coastal West Africa and southern Africa. Exceptional surpluses are expected in East Africa, particularly in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in Ethiopia, Sudan, and the Sahel during the latter portion of the forecast period.

Middle East: Widespread moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast across much of the Middle East and Turkey. Surpluses are forecast along the Iraq-Iran border and a small region in northeast Turkey.

Central Asia and Russia: Exceptional water surpluses are forecast along rivers in Kazakhstan and in central Russia from the Volga River through the Ural Mountains to the western edge of the Central Siberian Plateau. Water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.

South Asia: The forecast indicates a patchwork of varying water conditions in the region. Deficits are forecast for western Afghanistan and surpluses are forecast in the east. Deficits are forecast for much of Pakistan and much of northern India. Surpluses are forecast for Jammu and Kashmir, southeastern India and Sri Lanka. Both deficits and surpluses are forecast in many areas.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast for many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Deficits are expected to be most persistent, widespread, and severe in Southeast Asia, Sumatra, eastern Borneo, the southern Philippines, and Papua, New Guinea. Surpluses are forecast for western Borneo and Java.

East Asia: Moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in southeast China. Moderate deficits are forecast for northeast China, and both deficits and surpluses are forecast in western regions including the Tibetan Plateau.

Australia: Water surpluses are forecast in Northern Territory, and persistent deficits in Victoria and Tasmania.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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