Exceptional water surpluses are forecast along rivers in Kazakhstan and in central Russia from the Volga River through the Ural Mountains to the western edge of the Central Siberian Plateau (below). Water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan and are forecast to persist through October.

A lake formed in front of Moscow's famous Bolshoi Theatre as heavy rains - more than 22mm in 24 hours - turned roads into rivers, trapping cars and melting knee-deep snow into muddy torrents. In Kazakhstan regional emergency management teams are preparing for spring flooding by reinforcing river banks, discharging reservoirs, and stocking shelters.

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast to spread in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan from February through April, persist through October, and affect rivers in the region from July through September. Both deficits and surpluses are expected in Russia between the Urals and the Central Siberian Plateau May through October.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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