Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast to emerge throughout Mediterranean Europe, as seen in the 12-month map (below), with greatest extent and severity in eastern Spain, Corsica, Sardinia, Italy, southern Greece, and Crete. Deficits are also forecast in Finland and the Baltics. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for Ireland and northern United Kingdom.

Since early December financial support for flooding victims in Ireland has reached $548,670 (€498,700) disbursed to 424 households. In addition, over 130 farms have applied for emergency flood damage relief, according to the Department of Agriculture and $660,840 (€600,000) has already been distributed in farm fodder aid. Roads were closed in southern Scotland and hundreds of people were evacuated in the Scottish Borders as the River Teviot burst its banks. In contrast, the drought in Barcelona, Spain set records as 86 days passed without rain. Spanish olive production has been negatively impacted and olive oil prices are expected to rise 20%.

The 3-month composites for the same 12-month time period (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. The February through April map illustrates the forecast of a transition to moderate surpluses in Central Europe which may linger in Germany, and the persistence of deficits in Mediterranean Europe. In Finland and the Baltics deficits are forecast to recede somewhat before spreading April through October. Deficits in Southern Europe are also forecast to persist through October and be widespread in Spain and Italy.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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