Water deficits are forecast to emerge on the Baja Peninsula and will continue to emerge in southern Mexico with exceptional severity, as shown in the 12-month map (below). Surpluses are forecast to re-emerge in Sonora and persist in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and central Cuba. Moderate deficits are forecast to persist in southern Guatemala.

Mexico's national water authority, Conagua, reports that 208 Mexican municipalities are affected by drought, including Baja California and Nueva Leon in the north and Oaxaca and Guerrero in the south. Central America's "Dry Corridor" continues to experience drought, especially in Guatemala and Honduras, that has affected more than 4.2 million people according to the World Meteorological Organization. In Guatemala more than 900,000 farmers lost 100% of their staple crops.

The 3-month maps (below) for the same time period shows the evolving conditions in more detail. Water deficits in southern Mexico are forecast to persist through May, moderate through June, and re-intensify July through October. Deficits may emerge on the Baja Peninsula in February, recede in March, but re-emerge for much of the remaining forecast period. Surpluses are forecast for the Yucatan Peninsula and will be most widespread April through June.

By the end of the forecast period – July through October – abnormal to severe (3-20 year return period) water deficits are forecast for much of Central America. Exceptional deficits are forecast to emerge in Jamaica August through October.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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