Watching: United States and Canada; Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean; South America; Europe; Africa; Middle East; Central Asia and Russia; South Asia; East Asia; Southeast Asia and the Pacific; Australia.

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in December 2015 and running through November 2016 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

Regional details are available in ISciences' Global Water Monitor & Forecast March 15, 2016 (pdf).

United States and Canada: Overall, widespread moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, and much of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Surpluses are forecast for the Southern Plains and southern Florida. In April and May deficits are forecast for much of the country east of the Mississippi, and will emerge thereafter across the North, in the Central Plains, Northern Great Plains, and in the West, tracing paths along many major rivers. Though decreasing in severity, widespread deficits will persist through November. The outlook for Canada indicates widespread water deficits across the country with pockets of exceptional deficits in parts of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Water deficits are forecast to persist on the Baja Peninsula and will continue to emerge in southern Mexico with exceptional severity. Surpluses are forecast along the Rio Grande River and in a wide path from Sonora southward following the Sierra Madre Occidental Mountain range. Surpluses in central Cuba are forecast to persist through the spring months. Overall for the year moderate deficits are expected in Guatemala and Honduras, though more severe deficits are forecast throughout Central America in the latter months of the forecast period.

South America: Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern South America. Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast in Paraguay, across its eastern border into southern Brazil, and in central Argentina.

Europe: Severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast to emerge throughout Mediterranean Europe, with greatest extent and severity in eastern Spain, Sardinia, Sicily, Campania (Italy), southern Greece, and Crete. Deficits are also forecast in Finland and the Baltics. Surpluses are forecast for Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.

Africa: Water deficits are forecast in Northwest Africa, coastal West Africa and southern Africa, with particular persistence in coastal West Africa. Exceptional surpluses are expected in East Africa, especially in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in Ethiopia, Sudan, the Sahel, and northeastern Mozambique.

Middle East: Exceptional water deficits are forecast for southern Turkey and eastern Yemen. Surpluses are forecast along the Iraq-Iran border and a small region in northeast Turkey. Elsewhere the forecast indicates deficits of varying severity for the region. March through May will be especially dry on the Arabian Peninsula with severe to exceptional deficits forecast to encompass Yemen and western Oman.

Central Asia and Russia: Exceptional water surpluses are forecast along rivers in Kazakhstan and in central Russia from the Volga River through the Ural Mountains to the western edge of the Central Siberian Plateau. Water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.

South Asia: The forecast indicates a complex patchwork of water conditions in the region. Deficits are forecast for western Afghanistan and western Pakistan. Both deficits and surpluses are forecast in eastern Afghanistan. In India’s far north - Jammu and Kashmir – surpluses are forecast, while deficits persist in nearby states to the south. Much of southern India is forecast to experience deficits, though both deficits and surpluses are also predicted. Water surpluses are forecast in western Nepal; deficits in Bhutan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Exceptional water deficits will continue to affect many parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Deficits are expected to be most severe from March through May in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Malay Peninsula, and Mindanao. Surpluses are forecast for Java and western Borneo.

East Asia: Moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in southeast China, then transition to moderate deficits in Guangxi, Guangdong, and Guizhou in the later months. Moderate deficits are forecast for northeast China, and both deficits and surpluses are forecast in western regions including the Tibetan Plateau. Surpluses are forecast on the Yellow River in May.

Australia: The forecast indicates the presence of persistent deficits across the north and in Victoria, Tasmania, and North Island, New Zealand. A transition from moderate deficits to moderate surpluses in the Murray-Darling Basin is forecast in September, as are surpluses farther north along rivers in central Queensland.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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