Recent forecasts have been noteworthy for both the severity and extent of heat anomalies around the world. The outlook for June 2016 continues to show a dominant pattern of many severe to exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures along with a few pockets cooler than normal.  (For data sources see "About this blog post" below.)

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
As the map legend explains, the darker the red the more extreme the heat anomaly, and the darker the blue the more extreme the cool anomaly.

Temperature outlook for June 2016. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Much of Brazil can expect severe (frequency of 10-20 years) to exceptional (greater than 40 years) heat anomalies which will also affect southern Venezuela. Moving north, warm anomalies are forecast for El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, Cuba, and Mexico's Yucatan and Baja Peninsulas. In the US West, particularly California, moderate (5-10 years) to extreme (20-40 years) warm anomalies are forecast. Southern Florida, Michigan's Upper Peninsula, and much of Alaska will be warmer than normal. In contrast cool anomalies are forecast for Central Texas.

A band of red stretches across North Africa indicating warm anomalies, which in many areas are exceptional. Warm anomalies are also evident in coastal West Africa, South Africa, and much of the southern Arabian Peninsula. Pockets of cool anomalies are forecast in South Sudan and Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Mostly moderate warm anomalies are expected in much of Europe, with extreme anomalies in Iceland. 

A vast stretch of central and eastern Russia is blanketed in warm anomalies which continue down into eastern Mongolia and North China. Severe to extreme warm anomalies are forecast in central Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and other areas in Central Asia.

Much of Southeast Asia, the Pacific, northern and eastern Australia, and South Island, New Zealand can expect severe to exceptional heat anomalies. 

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Though some yellows and a few oranges show up on the June precipitation outlook map, indicating areas of abnormal dryness, the projected severity isn't expected to be exceptional. Some exceptionally wetter than normal areas, however, are quite noticeable in deep blue.

Precipitation outlook for June 2016. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Exceptional wet anomalies (expected frequency greater than 40 years) are forecast in: Sao Paulo, Brazil; in the Cuyo region of west-central Argentina; and in the Cordillera Central Mountains tracing a path through Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. Moderate (5-10 years) to severe (10-20 years) wet anomalies are expected in northern Bolivia and in Brazilian states that border Bolivia.

Wet anomalies are forecast for most of Texas, trailing southward through central Mexico. Anomalies in western Texas are expected to be severe (10-20 years) to extreme (20-40 years).

Severe to extreme wet anomalies are forecast in northern Afghanistan and western Uzbekistan, with anomalies of lesser severity nearby in northern Pakistan and western Kazakhstan. Elsewhere wet anomalies of varying severity are expected in: Ireland, Africa's central Sahel, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Myanmar, north-central China, Java, and south-central Australia.

Dry anomalies are forecast for: Uruguay, Pernambuco (Brazil), southern Spain, western Ethiopia, and parts of southern India.

About this blog post:

Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released June 2, 2016 which includes forecasts for June 2016 through February 2017 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued May 25 through May 31, 2016.

Technical details:

  • Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
    • Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
    • Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
    • Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
  • The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
  • Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
  • Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
  • Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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