Watching: United States and Canada; Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean; South America; Europe; Africa; Middle East; Central Asia and Russia; South Asia; East Asia; Southeast Asia and the Pacific; Australia.

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in March 2016 and running through February 2017 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

Regional details are available in ISciences' Global Water Monitor & Forecast June 14, 2016 (pdf).

United States and Canada: The outlook for the United States indicates widespread and varied water anomalies for much of the country. Water deficits are forecast for much of the Northeast, parts of the Southeast, Upper Midwest, and West, which are expected to be most severe June through August, particularly in the Northeast and West. Water surpluses are forecast for a vast portion of Texas which are also expected to be of greatest extent and exceptional severity through August.

The outlook for Canada indicates water deficits of varying severity across the country with pockets of exceptional deficits in parts of Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland. Exceptional surpluses are forecast to emerge in southern Quebec in July. After August deficits are expected to diminish in severity and extent across the country, though moderate to severe deficits will persist from British Columbia to northwestern Ontario.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Water deficits are forecast to persist on the Baja Peninsula through August and emerge around the southern Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan and southward into Central America. Thereafter moderate deficits are expected to emerge throughout much of southern Mexico. Deficits are also forecast in Haiti.

South America: Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across central and much of northern Brazil through August. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in Sao Paulo. Thereafter and through November the extent of exceptional deficits in Brazil will diminish, but deficits of varying severity will continue to emerge and increase in extent throughout northern South America.

Europe: Water surpluses are forecast through August for northeastern France; northern Portugal and Galicia, Spain; and North Yorkshire, United Kingdom. Water deficits are forecast for Germany, Poland, western Ukraine, Finland, the Baltics, Mediterranean Spain, Corsica, the Peloponnese region of Greece, and Crete. Deficits are expected to persist in Finland and the Baltics. With the exception of deficits in Finland, both deficits and surpluses throughout Europe are forecast to diminish in severity after August.

Africa: Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across North Africa, gradually diminishing in extent and severity, through November. Deficits of varying severity will also persist in much of Africa’s southern half, with extreme deficits forecast in Zambia. Water surpluses are forecast through November in Tanzania and northeastern Mozambique, and through February in Afar, Ethiopia. Deficits are expected to emerge in West Africa from December through February.

Middle East: Water deficits are forecast to persist in many parts of the Middle East through February – particularly the Arabian Peninsula – though the extent of exceptional deficits will diminish. Cyprus is forecast to transition out of exceptional deficit after May, while deficits in Qatar and United Arab Emirates may become more severe for the next six months. Pockets of severe to exceptional deficits across southern Turkey are expected to linger through November before diminishing in severity.

Central Asia and Russia: Exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist through November or longer in north central Kazakhstan; northeast of the Caspian Sea; along rivers elsewhere in Kazakhstan; and the Volga River Basin in Russia. Surpluses of varying severity are also forecast for northern Kyrgyzstan. Deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to persist but with diminished severity after August. Moderate to severe water deficits are forecast to emerge in Kazakhstan from September through February.

South Asia: Moderate water surpluses are forecast in India in an area fanning out from Gujarat. Deficits are expected in much of India’s southern half from Maharashtra south, and in central Odisha, north of Delhi, and the Thar Desert. Surpluses are forecast in eastern Afghanistan, Jammu and Kashmir, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. Deficits are expected to persist in western Afghanistan and southwestern Pakistan. Deficits are forecast to begin emerging in Bhutan and northeastern Indian states in July and increase through February.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Water deficits are forecast to persist in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Malaysia through February 2017. Water surpluses are forecast through August for southern Borneo, western Sumatra, and West Papua, Indonesia; and may persist longer on Java and Flores Island. Deficits of exceptional severity are forecast for Timor from June through August. A transition from surplus to deficit is forecast September through February for Sumatra and northern/northwestern Borneo.

East Asia: Water surpluses are expected to persist, though diminish in severity, in many provinces of China along the Yangtze River and south in the coming months, and then transition to moderate deficits beginning in November. Severe surpluses are forecast along the Yellow River in June. Deficits are forecast in Hainan June through August. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in Hokkaido, central Honshu, and Shikoku, Japan from June through August, and deficits may continue to emerge in some areas of Japan through February.

Australia: Water deficits are forecast to linger for the next six months across parts of northern Australia – particularly the northernmost regions of the Northern Territory and the southern shore of the Gulf of Carpentaria – and also in the southwest tip of Western Australia; Tasmania; and North Island, New Zealand. Moderate surpluses are forecast in August and September along the Macquarie and Lachlan Rivers in New South Wales. Current surpluses farther north in eastern Queensland are expected to persist, and surpluses are forecast to emerge along the Barcoo River in November.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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