Europe: Water surpluses forecast between France & Germany, deficits in Finland

The Big Picture
The 12-month forecast through February 2017 (below) shows the predominance of water deficits in Northern Europe, Eastern Europe and Spain, with pockets of exceptional deficits in the Baltics and Finland. Water surpluses are forecast in a pattern emanating from the shared borders of France, Germany, Luxembourg, and Belgium.

Impacts
Polish utility company Enea SA reduced power output at a coal-fired plant on the Vistula River because the temperature of the cooling water was too high. Polish power prices rose by a record 21 per cent last month as temperatures rose 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above the 30-year average.

Torrential rain continued to batter parts of Britain, with more than 20 alerts issued, flooding Brexit polling stations, disrupting London public transit, closing roads and businesses in Kent, and bringing out the Wellies at the Glastonbury Festival.

Forecast Breakdown
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month time period show the evolving conditions in more detail. The July through September forecast looks much like the observed conditions over the past three months. Moderate (5 to 10 year frequency) to severe (10 to 20 year) deficits are forecast for: southern Spain, Sardinia, Sicily, Crete, eastern Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, western Ukraine, Lithuania, southern Norway, and southern Sweden. In July deficits may be exceptional (greater than 40 years) along the Vistula River in Poland. Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast July through September for: Belarus, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland. Surpluses are expected in northern France and across the border into Germany, Belgium, and southern Netherlands.

As shown in the October through December and January through March maps, the forecast indicates surpluses emerging, first in Scotland, Germany, Norway and Sweden; and later in other parts of Central Europe, the Baltics, and Finland. Deficits are forecast for the Iberian Peninsula and parts of the Mediterranean.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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