The forecast through August indicates widespread water deficits of varying severity in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, with intense deficits sprinkled throughout but especially prevalent in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will persist on the Iberian Peninsula and may be exceptional between the Tajo and Guadiana Rivers, and from Toledo south to Granada. In European Russia, surpluses ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast for the Don River Basin and much of the Volga River Basin.
Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia through southern Xinjiang will diminish considerably, though widespread deficits of varying severity are expected. Deficits will increase in Northeast China and are expected to be intense in Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang. In Southeast China, moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Surpluses are forecast for the Huai River Basin. Moderate deficits are forecast for much of North Korea but deficits may be severe north of Pyongyang.
Exceptional water deficits in North Africa will diminish but persist, and severe deficits are forecast in Gabon and in Nigeria south of the Benue River. Deficits will also persist in western Zambia and are expected to be extreme on the Kafue River. Moderate to exceptional deficits will emerge in central Botswana. Exceptional surpluses will persist in Tanzania, Kenya, and northern Uganda, but diminish somewhat in northern Madagascar. Surpluses east of Kinshasa in Democratic Republic of the Congo are forecast to increase in both extent and intensity, becoming severe.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist in Afghanistan, retreating slightly in the north but increasing in the south. Pakistan should get a reprieve as intense deficits diminish considerably, leaving moderate to severe conditions in western Baluchistan. India will transition out of widespread deficit to milder conditions, with moderate deficits in the south and more severe deficits in the Far Northeast, particularly Assam. Surpluses will downgrade to moderate in West Bengal, and will shrink and downgrade in Bangladesh while remaining fairly intense, especially in Dhaka Division.
Mexico will transition away from significant water deficits in the northwest but widespread, intense deficits will emerge across the south and in the east. Deficits may be exceptional in Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Chiapas. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in northeastern Sonora. In Central America surpluses will shrink considerably but will persist in eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, and will emerge in Panama. Deficits are forecast for Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Deficits of varying severity are also forecast for much of the Caribbean.
The forecast through August indicates that exceptional water deficits in the northern Arabian Peninsula will shrink but deficits overall in the Peninsula will be widespread. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Lebanon, Israel, and West Bank. Deficits of varying severity are forecast throughout Turkey and Syria, though deficits in western Turkey will downgrade from exceptional. In southern Iran deficits will become more severe, reaching exceptional intensity in Kerman and neighboring provinces.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from March 2018 through February 2019 include: southern Mexico, northern Brazil, North Africa, Europe, Afghanistan, and Southeast China. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Montana and Idaho (US), Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Spain, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 June 2018.
The June Outlook indicates much warmer than normal temperatures (40+ years return period) blanketing a large block of Northeast China and stretching across the border well into Russia. Much of Europe is forecast to be warmer than normal, as well as many parts of Indonesia, while much cooler temperatures will prevail in parts of Central Africa. Conditions are expected to be much wetter than normal for several African nations along the Atlantic near the equator.
Exceptional water deficits will remain widespread in Afghanistan, while decreasing slightly. Deficits in Pakistan will generally moderate. India will transition from widespread water deficits to milder conditions. However, exceptional deficits are forecast surrounding Chandigarh, moderate deficits in Rajasthan, and intense deficits in the Far Northeast. Surpluses are expected in Jammu and Kashmir, northern Odisha, West Bengal, and along the Tapi River. Intense surpluses are forecast for the Gandaki River in Nepal. Moderate to extreme surpluses are forecast for northern Bangladesh.
The extent of exceptional water deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang will diminish considerably though widespread deficits of varying severity are expected. Moderate to severe deficits will increase in Northeast China. Moderate surpluses are forecast for much of the Yellow River. Exceptional surpluses in eastern Qinghai will begin to moderate, and surpluses in the Yangtze River Basin will diminish and downgrade. Though exceptional deficits will shrink in Southeast China, intense deficits are forecast. Deficits will downgrade in North Korea and moderate surpluses will expand in South Korea.