The forecast through March indicates that exceptional water deficits in western Cambodia will shrink somewhat but persist, and deficits in Thailand will downgrade slightly but remain widespread. Other areas of deficit include the Philippines, eastern Borneo, Sumatra’s southern tip, and Papua New Guinea. Surpluses are forecast for much of Vietnam, north-central Laos, most of Sumatra, western Indonesian Borneo, and pockets of Java.
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Southeast Asia & Pacific
The forecast through February indicates that water deficits will persist in western Cambodia and Thailand, emerge in the Philippines, and increase in Papua New Guinea. Deficits will be exceptional in Cambodia. Areas of surpluses include: northern Laos, northern Vietnam and parts of the Central Highlands, Malaysia, Sumatra, and northwestern Borneo. Surpluses may be intense in Riau and Jambi, Sumatra, and along the Kapuas River in Borneo.
The forecast through January indicates intense surpluses in western Myanmar, eastern Myanmar along the Sittong and Salween Rivers, northern Laos, and northern Vietnam. Deficits will persist in western Cambodia, increase in Thailand, and emerge in central Myanmar, central Laos, central Vietnam, and the Philippines. Conditions will be especially intense in Cambodia and Thailand.
The forecast through December indicates that water surpluses will shrink but intense surpluses are forecast for western Myanmar, northern Laos, and northern Vietnam. Exceptional deficits will persist in western Cambodia. Deficits will increase in Thailand and will emerge in eastern and southern Sumatra and on smaller islands in the region. Philippines will transition from surplus to deficit. Deficits in Papua New Guinea, though downgrading, will remain severe.
The near-term forecast through November indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade overall but remain intense in Myanmar and Laos. Extreme to exceptional deficits will increase in western Cambodia, and deficits of generally lesser severity will spread throughout much of Thailand. Deficits will increase in Malaysia, downgrade in Java and Papua New Guinea, and emerge in central Philippines, parts of Indonesia, and East Timor.
Through October, water surpluses will persist with intensity in western Myanmar, retreat from northwestern Thailand, downgrade slightly in Laos and Vietnam, shrink considerably in the Philippines, and nearly disappear in Malaysia and Indonesia. Exceptional surpluses are forecast along the Mekong River. Deficits north of Tonle Sap in Cambodia will intensify. Deficits are also forecast for the Malay Peninsula, western Indonesian Borneo, southern Sumatra, Java, Timor-Leste, and Papua New Guinea.
The forecast indicates a transition away from widespread, intense water surplus to deficit. Deficits are forecast for peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, Sulawesi, New Guinea, Java, pockets in Sumatra, and eastern Mindanao. Deficits will diminish somewhat in northwestern Cambodia, increase in southeastern Thailand, and emerge in Vietnam east of Hanoi and in central Myanmar. Surpluses are forecast for western and southern Myanmar, northern Laos, northwestern Vietnam, eastern Cambodia into Vietnam, central Philippines, and East Nusa Tenggara.
The forecast indicates a transition away from widespread, intense water surplus to deficit. Surpluses are forecast, however, for parts of Myanmar, northern Laos, northwestern Vietnam, eastern Cambodia, central Philippines, and East Nusa Tengara. Intense deficits will emerge in southernmost Thailand, and spread in Malaysia and northern Sumatra. Deficits of varying intensity are expected to emerge throughout Indonesia and may be extreme in West Nusa Tengara and Timor-Leste. Deficits in Papua New Guinea will downgrade but remain severe.
The forecast indicates a transition away from water surplus to deficit. Moderate deficits are forecast for northern Cambodia, southern Vietnam, northern Luzon, and pockets of Sumatra and Java. More intense deficits are forecast for peninsular Thailand and Malaysia, eastern Papua New Guinea, western Timor Leste, and West Nusa Tengara. Surpluses are expected in north-central Vietnam, northern Borneo, northern Sumatra, central Philippines, North Sulawesi, East Nusa Tengara, and Pulau Sumba.
The forecast indicates a transition away from water surplus to deficit. Deficits are forecast for mainland Southeast Asia, Peninsular Malaysia, northern Sumatra, and Luzon and Mindanao in the Philippines; deficits may be exceptional in Peninsular Malaysia. Exceptional deficits in Cambodia will shrink considerably but persist in a pocket northeast of Tonlé Sap. Severe deficits are forecast for Vietnam’s Mekong Delta region. Surpluses are forecast for central Philippines. After June, anomalies in the region will downgrade though severe deficits will continue in Peninsular Malaysia.