The forecast through January calls attention to significant water surpluses that will cut a wide north/south path from Michigan’s Upper Peninsula down through Texas, and will emerge in the Ohio River Valley leading into widespread surpluses in the east from Maine to South Carolina. Surpluses are expected to be exceptional in Texas, Wisconsin, and Iowa, among other areas. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast for Florida. Deficits are also forecast for central Colorado, the Rio Grande through New Mexico, and northwestern California into Oregon.
In the near-term through January, widespread water deficits are forecast though exceptional deficits will shrink. Areas of intense deficit include: the Balkans, Ireland, Germany, France, Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, southern Norway, Estonia, and Latvia. Areas of surplus include Norway, northern European Russia, Scotland, and Sicily.
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade significantly through January with conditions approaching normal in Iraq, Syria, northeastern Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Deficits will intensify in Georgia, and extreme deficits will emerge on the Kura River in Azerbaijan. Intense deficits are also forecast for southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and, to a lesser degree, western Turkey and along Turkey’s Black Sea coast.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2018 through July 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Amazonas (Brazil), Chile, Germany, Finland, Latvia, Egypt, western Cambodia, and southeastern Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas (US), Liberia, Paraguay, Myanmar, and Heilongjiang (China). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 12 November 2018.
Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for much of Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, extending into European Russia. Anomalies are expected to be exceptional, 40+ years return period, around the Baltic Sea and well into northern European Russia. Eastern Europe and the Balkans will be drier than normal.
The forecast through December indicates that prior exceptional water deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and the North Caucasus region will downgrade considerably, leaving primarily mild conditions. In Russia, surpluses will increase between the Ob and Yenisei Rivers and will be extreme to exceptional. Moderate deficits are forecast in the southern Ural Mountains, with surpluses to the west. Surpluses will re-emerge in the Upper Don River watershed.
The extent of exceptional water deficit in the region will diminish considerably through December, though deficits will cover most of Brazil and will be intense across the north, in Mato Grosso, São Paulo, and Paraná. Intense deficits are also forecast in Bolivia from east of La Paz through Cochabamba to the south, and from southern Peru through the Atacama Desert in northern Chile past Santiago. Surpluses will persist in Uruguay, and in Entre Rios and Buenos Aires Provinces in Argentina, and will emerge in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surpluses forecast for Coahuila, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, & Zacatecas, Mexico
The forecast through December indicates pockets of intense water deficit in Mexican states along the southern Gulf of Mexico and across to the Pacific. Moderate deficits are forecast for Yucatan and Mexico’s southern Pacific coast. Surpluses will persist in Coahuila, and will increase in northern Sinaloa, western Chihuahua, and from Zacatecas through Mexico City. Surpluses are expected in eastern Guatemala and eastern Costa Rica. Deficits in Cuba will moderate.
Widespread water surpluses will emerge south of the Yangtze River and in the Pearl River watershed over the next few months and may persist through March. Surpluses are also forecast for Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet and may persist even longer. Deficits will increase and intensify from western Inner Mongolia through Xinjiang, and moderate to severe deficits will emerge from the North China Plain to the Yangtze River. Extreme surpluses are forecast for southern Japan, and deficits for southern North Korea.
The widespread exceptional water deficits that have dominated Afghanistan in recent months will moderate through December though deficits will remain more intense northeast of Kabul. Moderate deficits are forecast for southern Pakistan. In India, deficits will also moderate but will be intense along the Tungabhadra River in the southwest, and in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Arunachal Pradesh. Areas of surplus include northernmost India, Uttar Pradesh, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.