*Special Topics
ISciences staff
Mexican Drought in Historical Context: A sign ...

The ISciences Global Water Monitor and Forecast Watch List provides monthly reports of data collected by our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM), which monitors and forecasts water anomalies on a global basis.

Mexican Drought in Historical Context: A sign of more extreme heat-driven drought to come
*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List April 2024

The forecast for April 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of January 2024 through December 2024 in South America, northeastern Africa, and the Middle East. Areas expected to experience surplus include eastern to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List April 2024
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Exceptional deficits continue in N, ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern regions of China, but lessen in size in northern and northeastern China. Surpluses occurring in Tibet are also expected to remain but diminish in size. 

East Asia: Exceptional deficits continue in N, NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surplus spreads ...

The forecast indicates that deficits will persist throughout Mainland Southeast Asia, but decrease in intensity, becoming mostly moderate to severe anomalies. Intense surplus is expected to expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in central Indonesia, Papua, and Papua New Guinea. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surplus spreads throughout Maritime SE Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surplus expands throughout India

The forecast indicates that most exceptional deficits in Pakistan and Afghanistan will dissipate, though some regions are expected to experience lingering deficits. India is expected to observe widespread surplus throughout the country. 

South Asia: Surplus expands throughout India

Central Asia & Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast for Volga River Basin, & from Ob to Tom River

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast for Volga River Basin, & from Ob to Tom River

Widespread exceptional water deficits in northern Russia observed in the prior three months are forecast to retreat May through July. However, drier than normal conditions will persist from the Yamal Peninsula to the Sea of Okhotsk. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Volga River Basin, the Irtysh, and between the Ob and the Tom Rivers. Surpluses will continue to emerge in many parts of Kazakhstan and are also forecast for eastern Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Moderate deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and central Uzbekistan. Beyond July the forecast shows a similar geographic distribution of anomalies but with some changes in conditions.

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast from the Irtysh to the Tom River, Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast from the Irtysh to the Tom River, Russia

Widespread and exceptional water deficits observed in Russia in the prior three months are forecast to retreat April through June. However, drier than normal conditions will persist from the White Sea to the Lena River. Surpluses are forecast from the Irtysh to the Tom River, along the Middle Ob River, and between the Volga River and the Belaya River. Surpluses will continue to emerge in the many areas of Kazakhstan as well as in Kyrgyzstan, eastern Uzbekistan, and western Tajikistan. Moderate deficits are forecast for western Uzbekistan and parts of Turkmenistan.

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in northern Russia, surpluses in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in northern Russia, surpluses in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan

Drier than normal conditions will persist in many parts of northern Russia, with exceptional water deficits reaching from the Upper Taz River past the Yenisei River to the Lower Tunguska. Surpluses are forecast between the Volga River in Samara Oblast and the Belaya River in the Republic of Bashkortostan. Surpluses will continue to emerge in many parts of Kazakhstan and in Kyrgyzstan. Moderate deficits are forecast for eastern Tajikistan and surpluses in the west. Severe deficits are forecast for south-central Uzbekistan and into northern Turkmenistan.

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in Arctic Russia, surpluses in Kyrgyzstan

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in Arctic Russia, surpluses in Kyrgyzstan

Drier than normal conditions will persist in many parts of northern Russia from the White Sea through the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses will continue to emerge in northwestern Kazakhstan, down the middle of Kazakhstan through Karagandy Region, and in Kyrgyzstan. From May through July deficits will increase southwest of Russia’s Yamal Peninsula, exceptional surpluses will emerge between the Irtysh and Yenisei Rivers, and moderate deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits across Arctic Russia, surpluses in Kazakhstan

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits across Arctic Russia, surpluses in Kazakhstan

Drier than normal water conditions will persist in many parts of northern Russia from the White Sea past the Central Siberian Plateau through September. Surpluses will persist in the Ural River watershed in Kazakhstan, and also in the central, northeastern, and eastern parts of the country. Surpluses are forecast to persist in eastern Kyrgyzstan, and moderate deficits in Uzbekistan. An expanse of exceptional deficits between the Irtysh and Yenisei Rivers in Russia is forecast to transition to exceptional surplus from April through June.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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