China, Mongolia, & the Korean Peninsula: Widespread surpluses forecast for Southeast China, moderate deficits in North China

Moderate water deficits are forecast to continue in North China including the North China Plain and in Mongolia, as seen in the 12-month composite map (below). Both deficits and surpluses are forecast in Mongolia. Widespread surpluses are forecast for Southeast China.

Deficits in the North as well as surpluses in the South are forecast to diminish in severity in the latter part of the forecast period, as seen in the 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period. Surpluses of exceptional severity are forecast to persist in Southeast China through February, and in North Korea through May. Moderate surpluses are forecast to persist in Southeast China through May, and moderate surpluses are forecast to emerge in the Yangtze River basin June through August. Deficits in South Korea are forecast to diminish. Both deficits and surpluses are expected to continue in the Tibetan Plateau throughout the forecast period, with greatest extent and severity December through February. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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