Exceptional water deficits are forecast for Central America starting in July and continuing through January 2016, as shown in the upper figure, which depicts the composite water anomaly index for the period August through October 2015. Exceptional deficits are also forecast to hit Colombia, Ecuador, and Northern Peru in late summer. The area of extreme to exceptional deficits in Venezuela expands into Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana beginning in June, with the area of greatest deficits moving southward beginning in October. A sizable portion of Northern Brazil is forecast to experience exceptional deficits beginning in December 2015. The lower figure illustrates the extent of the deficits during the period November 2015 through January 2016.

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for Aug 2015 through Oct 2015

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for Aug 2015 through Oct 2015

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for Nov 2015 through Jan 2016

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for Nov 2015 through Jan 2016

This blog post presents results from our May “WSIM Global Water Monitor and Forecast” report. This report is based on observed temperature and precipitation through April 2015 and an ensemble of 28 temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by NOAA's CFSv2 the last week of April 2015.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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