Moderate to severe water deficits are forecast to continue in much of Southeast Asia and the Pacific through January 2016, with portions of central Vietnam and Southern Thailand being hit the hardest. Widespread exceptional deficits occur starting in May 2015 and continuing at least through November 2015 for much of the island that includes Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian province of Papua. Similar deficits are also forecast for the Sabah province of South Malaysia, the Indonesian province of Kalimantan Timur, and the Philippine Island of Mindanao beginning in Malaysia and Philippines in May, spreading south into Indonesia in July, and peaking in September 2015. The composite anomaly water index map in the figure compares June through November to the same 6-month historical period, and illustrates the overall magnitude and extent of the forecast deficits.

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for Jun through Nov 2015

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for Jun through Nov 2015

This blog post presents results from our May “WSIM Global Water Monitor and Forecast” report. This report is based on observed temperature and precipitation through April 2015 and an ensemble of 28 temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by NOAA's CFSv2 the last week of April 2015.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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