Exceptional water surpluses are expected in Tanzania and surrounding areas beginning in November 2015. The 3-month composites for the 12-month period from April 2015 through March 2016 show the evolving conditions in detail. (It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times). Surpluses may affect rivers in neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. Note the Victoria Nile (see Oct-Dec 2015 and Jan-Mar 2016) as it winds north of Lake Victoria on the border of Uganda and Tanzania.

Comment

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.5°x0.5° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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