Moderate deficits are forecast for parts of peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra, but deficits will be intense in eastern Java, southern Borneo, and around the western shore of the Gulf of Papua in Papua New Guinea.
Surpluses are forecast for: Myanmar, particularly in the west; Vietnam’s North Central Coast and the Central Highlands reaching into easternmost Cambodia; northern Luzon and central Cebu, Philippines; Malaysian Borneo; and Flores Island. Surpluses will be intense in western Myanmar, north-central Vietnam, and northeastern Luzon at the mouth of the Cagayan River.
FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.
The forecast through March 2020 indicates persistent deficits in Thailand and western Cambodia though the extent of exceptional deficits will shrink to small pockets. Surpluses will persist in western and northern Myanmar with conditions of both deficit and surplus (purple) in the Lower Irrawaddy River region and Delta as transitions occur. Surpluses will be intense in western Myanmar. Moderate to severe surpluses will persist in northern Laos and Vietnam’s Central Highlands, and exceptional anomalies in the North Central Coast of Vietnam.
In the Philippines, surpluses will emerge on Mindoro and intensify in northern Luzon. Some areas of moderate deficit are expected to emerge in the central Philippines and Mindanao. Deficits will shrink in Malaysia, Sumatra, and Java; emerge in central Sulawesi with intensity; and downgrade in Papua New Guinea. Moderate surpluses are expected to emerge in northwestern Borneo.
From April through June 2020, some moderate deficits are expected in a path from the shared border of Myanmar and Laos tracing south through western Thailand and into peninsular regions of Myanmar, Thailand, and Malaysia. Some moderate deficits are also forecast for pockets of central Vietnam and for the central and southern Philippines. A pocket of extreme deficit is forecast north of Tonlé Sap in Cambodia and also in northern Sumatra. Moderate surpluses are expected in scattered small pockets of Indonesia.
The forecast for the final months – July through September 2020 – indicates nearly normal conditions in most of the region, but intense deficits in the Lesser Sunda Islands, moderate deficits in pockets of Thailand, and moderate surpluses in pockets of northern Sumatra.
(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)
IMPACTS
Typhoon Kammuri left at least 17 dead in the Philippines though mass evacuations were credited for preventing more casualties. The early December storm closed Manila airport for 12 hours, canceling nearly 500 flights, and closed 3 bridges and portions of 12 roads. Agricultural losses in Bicol and Southwestern Tagalog regions alone are estimated at 800 million pesos (USD $15.7 million).
Amid what officials fear may be the worst drought in 40 years, Thailand’s prime minister is urging people to take shorter showers. Low levels in the Chao Phraya River, source of much of the nation’s water, have allowed salt water intrusion, leading to salinated water in Bangkok’s taps. Nine hospitals in the northeast report water shortages.
The government of Cambodia is advising rice farmers not to plant crops this season, with water shortages reported in 16 provinces due to drought and high temperatures. In Kampong Thom Province a tributary of the Tonle Sap River has dried out. Three quarters of the nation’s farmland is used for rice cultivation.
Worsening drought in northern Laos has left residents of a resettlement village without water. The resettlement four years ago was initiated by the Nam Tha 1 Dam hydropower project. Operations at the dam began last month and the planned reduction of downstream water flow has exacerbated existing severe drought conditions in the village. Rivers and creeks in the area have been dry for months, and villagers are traveling by motorcycle or on foot to collect water now that contractual support from the dam’s construction company has expired.
The Mekong River Commission has approved a new five-year drought management plan for Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam. The current drought has dropped Mekong water levels to their lowest in over half a century, according to the Commission. Vietnam’s National Center for Hydrological Forecasting reports that rainfall in the upper Mekong between June and October of this year was 35 to 40 percent below normal with similar deficits predicted between now and February 2020.
NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.
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