Central Asia & Russia: Transitional conditions, surplus continues in central Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Transitional conditions, surplus continues in central Russia

26 May 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January indicates intense anomalies will be present throughout Russia, with intense surpluses in its eastern and central regions, and notable deficits throughout its northern and southern regions.

Extreme to exceptional surplus is forecast in: 

  • Eastern Russia, throughout central and northern regions of the Sakha Republic, particularly in central regions of the Olenyoksky District, and throughout central areas of the federal subject Zabaykalsky Krai. 

  • Central and northern Russia, in southern regions of the federal subject Krasnoyarsk Krai, as well as throughout northern and central regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District.

  • Southern Russia, near the cities of Omsk and throughout the federal subject of Altai Krai. 

  • Southeastern Kazakhstan, in areas east of Lake Balkhash. 

  • Southwestern Kazakhstan, throughout the Karakiya District.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in: 

  • Northwest Russia, with exceptional deficits near the settlement of Novy Port, and northern areas of the Nadymsky and Purovsky districts.

  • Eastern Russia, in western areas of Zabaykalsky Krai. 

  • Turkmenistan, widespread throughout the country.

Transitional conditions are anticipated in:

  • Eastern Russia, throughout the Evenkiysky District. 

  • North-central Uzbekistan, throughout the Uchkuduk District. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast throughout July predicts small areas of moderate to severe transitional conditions in the Central Siberian Plateau, with exceptional surpluses persisting further north in the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, as well as east in the Evenkiysky District. Severe to exceptional surpluses will also persist in areas near the city of Omsk. Pockets of similarly intense transitional conditions are expected to appear in southern Kazakhstan and north-central Uzbekistan.

From July through September 2023, transitional conditions within the central regions of the Central Siberian Plateau are expected to persist, with areas farther northeast experiencing lingering exceptional surplus. Regions within the Narymsky District can expect surpluses of similar intensity, while areas in the Tazovsky locality can expect extreme to exceptional surplus. 

The forecast for the final months – November to January 2024 – predicts most intense anomalies throughout the region to dissipate, with exceptional deficits continuing near the settlement of Novy Port and the Tazovsky locality. Extreme surpluses are forecast in Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, as well as northern areas of the Evenkiysky District.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Areas within Russia’s Ural mountains and Siberia regions are experiencing widespread wildfires at the beginning of May. Over 54,000 hectares of forests in the Sverdlovsk region in the Urals were on fire, with more than 4,800 firefighters and 6,000 volunteers on the scene. Head of Russia’s Federal Forestry Agency Ivan Sovetnikov said he expected “most major fires in the region to be contained and put out” within two to three days. In the nearby Kurgan region, the fires destroyed more than 300 residential houses and 3,900 other buildings.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report predicts that precipitation patterns in the next five years will result in increased rainfall in several areas, including the Siberian region of Russia. Additionally, the WMO warned that global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, with temperatures expected to reach over 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas stated, "We estimate that in the coming five years, we will hit 1.15°C on a temporary basis, but in the coming 15 to 20 years, we estimate that might be the more permanent feature of climate.”

A recent study reported declining water levels in over half of the world’s largest lakes and reservoirs, including the Aral Sea, which runs between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Recently released satellite images show that the once large saltwater lake has begun to shrink due to drought and water diversion, instead becoming smaller lakes, and even completely dry in some areas. The study revealed that sedimentation was the dominant cause of water loss in reservoirs, while loss in natural lakes could be attributed to evaporation from rising temperatures, as well as human water consumption.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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