Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook July 2023

7 July 2023

OVERVIEW

Our July 2023 Global Precipitation and Temperature Outlook anticipates exceptionally warm temperatures throughout many regions worldwide, including South America, Africa, Mexico, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Some exceptional precipitation deficits are expected to occur in South America, and South Asia, with equally intense surpluses occurring across Australia.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

The temperature forecast indicates exceptionally higher than normal temperatures in many regions of the world, including South America, Africa, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Severe to extreme temperatures are expected to be widespread in Canada, Europe, South Asia, and Russia.

The United States several states are expected to endure exceptionally warmer temperatures than normal, including:

Texas, throughout most of its southernmost areas.
Maine, along the state’s southern coastal regions.
Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee.

Canada can expect widespread deficits of varying intensity throughout the country.

Severe to exceptional warm anomalies are expected to occur in the following provinces:

Northeastern British Columbia, near the Northern Rockies.
Quebec, in northwestern coastal regions of the Hudson Bay, as well as further inland, near central areas of the Eeyou Istchee Baie-James municipality. Eastern areas of the Côte-Nord can expect extreme warm anomalies.
Ontario, with severe warm anomalies appearing across most northwestern and southeastern regions of the province.
In southeastern areas of Newfoundland and Labrador, throughout the island of Newfoundland.

The forecast for Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean indicates that most countries within the region will experience notably warmer than normal temperatures.

Exceptionally warm temperatures are expected in the following countries:

Mexico, widespread throughout much of the country’s northeast, central, and southern states.
Western Honduras, across most of the country’s western departments.
Southern Nicaragua, spanning most areas around Lake Cocibolca.
Costa Rica and Panama, widespread throughout both countries.

Exceptional warm anomalies are expected to be widespread throughout northern and central South America. Much of the Southern Cone can expect near normal temperatures.

The following countries can expect exceptionally high temperatures:

Colombia and Venezuela, covering the majority of both countries.
The Guianas, with the most intense anomalies expected to occur in northern Guyana.
Widespread throughout the Bolivarian Nations.
Brazil, spanning vast areas throughout the country.

The forecast for Europe indicates that moderately warm temperatures will be widespread throughout the region, with some isolated events of higher intensity appearing across Continental Europe.

Severe to extreme warm temperatures are expected in the following countries:

Southwestern Spain, throughout Huelva and its surrounding areas.
Western Spain, in western coastal areas of the Galicia region.
Throughout most of the Italian island of Sardinia.

Africa is anticipated to experience large regions with exceptionally warm temperatures, including:

Western Algeria, throughout much of the region and traveling throughout central to northeastern Niger, northern to central Mali, central to northern Sudan, southeastern Libya, and northwestern to northeastern Chad.
Central Mauritania into western Senegal, continuing along coastal regions bordering the North Atlantic Ocean into the Gulf of Guinea and southern regions of the Ivory Coast.
Benin, Nigeria, and Cameroon, widespread throughout each country.
West-central Ethiopia, continuing in pockets in northwestern and southwestern Kenya.
Western regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Republic of Congo, near the countries shared border with Angola. These anomalies continue into western coastal regions of Angola, as well as along its southern border shared with Namibia.
Madagascar, near and throughout the Alaotra-Mangoro region.

The Middle East can mostly anticipate widespread, exceptional warm anomalies throughout much of the region.

Exceptionally warm temperatures are forecast in:

Saudi Arabia, throughout most of the country, continuing into the Al-Zubair district in southeastern Iraq.
United Arab Emirates, throughout the entire country and continuing into Oman, in the Al Buraymi and Al Batinah districts.
Iran, spanning from southwestern coastal areas of the Persian Gulf and continuing northeast into the Sistan and Baluchestan Province.

Exceptionally cooler temperatures are expected in:

Northern coastal regions of Turkey, along the Black Sea.

Central Asia is expected to experience mostly normal to mild temperature anomalies. However, extreme to exceptional warm anomalies are forecast in several parts of Russia, specifically:

Near the Tuva Republic.
Southern regions of Krasnoyarsk Krai.
Throughout Yuzhny Island and northern areas of the Yamalsky District.
Western coastal regions of the Nadymsky District.
Southern portions of the Magadan Oblast, in coastal regions bordering the Sea of Okhotsk.
Throughout much of Kamchatka Krai.

The forecast for South Asia anticipates moderate to severe warm anomalies to appear in the following areas:

Nepal, throughout much of the country.
Northern and eastern India, within the states of Punjab, Odisha, and West Bengal. Further east, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, and other surrounding states are expected to endure similarly intense warm temperatures.
Bangladesh, spanning much of the country.
Pakistan, in areas near the Awaran District and southern areas of the Punjab province.

Southeast Asia is expected to endure widespread intense anomalies across most of the region. Regions affected by exceptionally warm temperatures include:

Myanmar, throughout the entire country.
Northern Thailand, throughout northern Laos and northern to central Vietnam.
Throughout most islands of the Philippines and Indonesia.
Papua and Papua New Guinea, spanning northern and southern areas of both regions.

East Asia is expected to endure widespread, exceptionally high temperatures throughout much of the region, including:

Northeast China, throughout Inner Mongolia and spreading throughout countries within the Shandong Peninsula.
Southwestern China, covering the vast majority of the Yunnan and Tibet provinces.
Central Japan, throughout the country’s main island of Honshu.
North Korea, throughout much of the South Hwanghae province.

Much of Australia is forecast to experience near normal temperatures, with moderate to severe warm anomalies expected to appear along its eastern coast. New Zealand can expect mostly normal conditions with moderate deficits appearing in most of the South Island.

Areas that will experience moderate to severely warmer than normal temperatures include:

Northernmost Queensland, throughout the Cape York Peninsula and near the city of Cairns. These anomalies continue further along Australia’s eastern coast, appearing in coastal regions of New South Wales and Victoria.
Tasmania, throughout most of the country.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

The precipitation forecast for July 2023 anticipates mostly normal conditions throughout most regions, with some exceptional precipitation deficits occurring in South America, South Asia, and equally intense surpluses occurring across Australia.

The United States can anticipate widespread surplus precipitation anomalies throughout the eastern and central states, with some areas of moderate deficits appearing in southwestern states and the Pacific Northwest. Moderately wetter than average conditions are expected in the following regions:

South-central Montana, south of the Yellowstone River, moving into northwest Wyoming near Yellowstone Lake.
Eastern Idaho, in areas near the Salmon River.
Southeastern New York, across the Hudson River, continuing into northeastern Pennsylvania.
Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts, widespread throughout most of each state.
Central Kansas, in areas west of the Marais de Cygnes River.

Drier than average conditions are expected in:

Arizona, appearing west of the Rio Grande River, and throughout the portion of Colorado Plateau within northwestern New Mexico.
Southern California, near southern regions of the Sierra Nevada and into southern Nevada.
Northern Utah, in areas surrounding the Great Salt Lake.
Western coastal regions of Oregon and Washington.
Southern Alaska, spanning areas near the Alaska Range and into the Alaska Peninsula.

Much of Canada is expected to experience normal conditions and mild precipitation deficit anomalies, though some provinces can expect anomalies of moderate intensity.

Moderately drier than normal conditions are expected in the following provinces:

Along the western coast of British Columbia, along the Coast Mountains and throughout Vancouver Island.
Southern Yukon, throughout the Yukon Plateau.

Moderately wetter than normal conditions are expected in:

Coastal regions of northeastern Manitoba, in coastal regions of the Hudson Bay.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean anticipate scattered anomalies throughout the region. Relatively dry conditions are anticipated in:

Northwestern Mexico, with severe to extreme precipitation deficits appearing throughout the Chihuahuan Desert, as well as throughout eastern coastal regions the Sierra Madre Oriental mountain range.
El Salvador, throughout much of the country, as well as small pockets in central Guatemala and western Nicaragua.
Throughout much of south-central Haiti.

Wetter than normal conditions are expected in:

Central Mexico, in western regions of the state of Coahuila.
Eastern coastal regions of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua.
The majority of the Bahamas.

South America can expect exceptional precipitation deficits in several areas, with the rest of the region experiencing normal conditions to relatively mild dry conditions.

Areas expected to experience exceptionally drier than normal conditions include:

Throughout the majority of the Guianas, spreading into northern regions of the Brazilian State of Amapá.
Central and northern Colombia, appearing in pockets near the Meta River, into coastal regions of north-central Venezuela.
Most of central Ecuador, with exceptional deficits appearing through the country’s north-central and south-central areas. Deficits continue, but lessen in intensity to severe deficits in central Perú.
Eastern coastal regions of Brazil, appearing near the city of Salvador.
Northwestern and northeastern Argentina, with moderate deficits appearing along the country’s borders. These deficits appear again throughout Uruguay and in much of north-central Chile.

The following countries are expected to experience wetter than normal conditions:

Western coastal regions of Ecuador, of which are expected to be of severe to extreme intensity.
North-central Argentina, near the country’s northern border.

Europe is expected to experience mostly normal conditions, with small instances of notable anomalies appearing in Continental Europe.

Moderately dry conditions are expected in:

Western coastal regions of Spain and Portugal.

Mild to moderately wet conditions are anticipated in:

Central Sweden, in central regions of Jamtland County.
Southern Finland, in regions near the Gulf of Bothnia.

Africa can expect moderate to severe surplus anomalies throughout its northern and central regions, and moderate deficits throughout the continent’s eastern regions.

Areas expected to be moderate to severely wetter than normal include:

Much of northern Algeria, near the city of Algiers, and continuing in pockets further inland into Tunisia and Morocco.
Northern Mali, appearing in sparse pockets near the country’s northern border, and appearing further east in northern Niger.
Gabon, with moderate to severe surplus throughout the country. These anomalies continue into northwestern Republic of Congo, southern Cameroon, and southern Nigeria.
Tanzania, with mostly mild to moderate surplus anomalies appearing in pockets throughout the country. These anomalies continue into northeastern Zambia.

The following countries can anticipate dry conditions of varying intensity:

Sudan, with mild to moderate deficits appearing widespread throughout the country.
Ethiopia, with mild to moderate deficits occurring in its southern and central areas. Further north, deficits intensify into exceptional conditions near North Gondar and Agensera.
Kenya, with moderate deficits spread throughout much of the country’s southwestern regions.

The Middle East can expect mostly normal conditions, with some moderate, isolated anomalies appearing throughout the region.

Dry conditions of varying intensity are expected in the following countries:

Southwestern Saudi Arabia, near the city of Jazan. These anomalies continue further south into western coastal regions of Yemen.
North-central Turkey, near the city of Kastamonu.

Areas expected to experience wetter than normal conditions include:

North-central Iraq, appearing near the city of Erbil and continuing in an arc, moving southeast into southwestern Iran.

Conditions in Russia are expected to be mostly mild to normal, though countries in Central Asia are expected to endure some instances of intense surplus.

The following countries are expected to endure surplus of moderate to severe intensity:

Eastern Kyrgyzstan, with moderate surpluses appearing in the Issyk-Kul region.
Tajikistan, throughout the majority of the country.
Southern Kazakhstan, with moderate surpluses appearing in pockets across the Sheili and Talas districts.
North-central Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.

South Asia is expected to endure intense, widespread deficit anomalies, with some mild surplus occurring in southern areas.

Severe to extreme precipitation deficits are expected to appear in:

Northern and central India, in Himachal Pradesh, as well as across the Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh regions.
Southeastern coastal regions of Sri Lanka.

Mild to moderately wetter than normal conditions will occur in:

South-central India, near the state of Andhra Pradesh.

Southeast Asia will experience mostly normal conditions, though some instances of mild to moderate precipitation surpluses will occur in a few isolated regions.

The following areas will experience mild to moderate surplus:

Central Laos, throughout the Khammouane province.
Central island of the Philippines.
Most of the Lesser Sunda Islands.

East Asia is expected to experience mostly mild conditions, with some intense anomalies developing in pockets throughout the region.

Wetter than normal conditions are expected to occur in the following regions:

Southeastern China, with moderate surpluses appearing throughout the Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Hunan provinces.
Western China, in the far western areas of the Xinjiang province along the country’s western border. Areas in north-central Tibet can expect similarly intense precipitation surpluses.
Southern Japan, with the highest intensity anomalies appearing throughout the island of Kyushu.

Dry conditions are expected in:

Southwestern China, widespread throughout much of Tibet.

Australia can anticipate intense surpluses across its northern and central regions, and mild to moderate deficits in western areas. New Zealand is expected to experience mostly mild anomalies across the country.

Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected in:

North-central Australia, spanning most of the Northern Territory’s central regions and continuing east into western Queensland.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released Month 2, 2023 which includes forecasts for Month 2023 through Month 2023 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued Month 25 through Month 31, 2023.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags