Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook August 2023

8 August 2023

OVERVIEW

Our August 2023 Global Precipitation and Temperature Outlook anticipates exceptionally warm temperatures throughout many regions worldwide, including South America, Africa, Mexico, Southeast Asia, European Russia, and the Middle East. Some notable precipitation deficits are expected to occur in northern South America, central Africa, the Middle East, and southern Asia.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

The temperature outlook for August 2023 anticipates intense warm anomalies to continue in many regions worldwide, including South America, Africa, Mexico, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.

The United States can expect widespread exceptional warm anomalies across most southern and southeastern states.

The following states can anticipate exceptionally warm anomalies:

Western New Mexico, in most regions east of the Rio Grande River.
Texas, throughout most of the state, as well as across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Southern Florida, spread throughout most regions south of the Saint Johns River.
Southeastern Alaska, in regions surrounding the Tanana River, as well as regions near eastern portions of the Yukon River.

Canada should expect mostly mild to moderate warm anomalies and normal conditions, with some intense deficits arising in northwestern provinces.

Exceptionally warm temperatures are forecast in the following provinces:

Across most of the central to southern regions of the Yukon.
British Columbia, throughout most western coastal regions of the province, as well as in areas north of the Stikine and Finlay River.
South-central Manitoba, south of Lake Winnipeg.
Southern Northwest Territories, in areas south of the Great Slave Lake.
Northern coastal regions of the Queen Elizabeth Islands.

For Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, exceptionally warm temperatures can be expected throughout most countries.

The following countries can expect exceptional warm anomalies:

Mexico, across most northern and central states, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula and Sierra Madre del Sur.
Throughout most of Honduras and Nicaragua.
Costa Rica and Panama, spanning the entirety of both countries.
Western Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and northern regions of the Dominican Republic.
The majority of the Bahamas.

South America is expected to endure widespread exceptional warm anomalies across most of its northern countries, as well as coastal regions of central countries.

The following countries are forecast to endure exceptionally higher than normal temperatures:

Southern and eastern regions of Venezuela, continuing west throughout the Bolivarian Nations and east throughout the Guianas.
Northern Chile, continuing northeast into southwestern Bolivia.
Throughout most of Brazil.

Europe is expected to observe mostly normal conditions with some instances of moderate to severe warm anomalies occurring in southern portions of Continental Europe.

Notable warm anomalies are anticipated in the following regions:

Southwestern Spain, spanning the Andalucia and Extremadura regions.
Easternmost regions of Portugal, in eastern areas of the Beja region.

The forecast for Africa anticipates exceptionally warm temperatures to be widespread throughout the continent’s central and northern regions.

Exceptionally warm anomalies are anticipated in:

Algeria, across most of the country.
Southeastern Libya, in southern Murzuq and Al Kufrah, as well as throughout Egypt and northern Sudan.
Northern and eastern Ethiopia, near the Abay River, stretching into Somaliland, north-central Somalia, southern Kenya, and eastern Uganda.
Western coastal regions of Senegal, spreading across all countries to the east bordering the Gulf of Guinea and into most of the Central African Republic and southern regions of the Republic of Congo.
Namibia, in northwestern and southwestern regions of the country.
Madagascar, widespread throughout northern and central regions.

The Middle East can expect intense warm anomalies throughout most of its regions.

Exceptionally warm temperatures are expected in:

Central to northern Saudi Arabia, spreading further north into Jordan, Syria, southern Iraq, Armenia, and Georgia.
Southwestern Saudi Arabia, in northern areas of the Asir region.
Western Iran, spreading south from the Qazvis region into Khuzestan.
Northern coastal regions of Oman, spreading into portions of the United Arab Emirates.
Turkey, throughout most of the country.

Exceptionally cooler than average temperatures are anticipated in:

Northern coastal regions of Turkey, along the Black Sea.

Central Asia is expected to observe mostly moderate to severe warm anomalies, while southwestern Russia is expected to experience exceptional deficits.

Areas expected to observe exceptional warm anomalies include:

Much of European Russia, spreading from the Kurgan region into far western regions including the Mahilyow, Bryansk, and Smolensk regions, spreading into eastern regions of Belarus. Similar anomalies are expected in the Kharkib and Donetsk regions, as well as in surrounding areas near the border of Ukraine.

Warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected across southern regions of South Asia.

The following countries are expected to observe exceptionally warmer than usual temperatures:

Southern and southeastern India, in regions south of the Tungabhadra River, as well as in the West Bengal province.
Nepal, in most areas along the country’s northern border.
Southeastern coastal regions of Bangladesh.
Southwestern Myanmar, in coastal regions of the Rakhine province, and moving further inland into the Magway and Mandalay regions.
Western Pakistan, in the Baluchistan province.

Exceptionally cooler than normal temperatures are expected in:

East-central Pakistan, along the Indus River.

Most countries throughout Southeast Asia and the Pacific can anticipate severe to exceptional warm anomalies.

Countries expected to endure exceptionally warmer than usual temperatures include:

Central to eastern Thailand, in regions north of the Mun and Chi rivers, and spreading east into southern Laos and north-central Vietnam.
Singapore, throughout much of the country, and in southern-most regions of Peninsular Malaysia.
Indonesia, in western and central regions of the island of Sumatrai, as well as throughout Java, northern to central Sulawesi, and the northern and western provinces of Kalimantan.
Northern regions of Papua surrounding the Taritatu River, as well as throughout the West Papua province. Similarly intense temperatures are expected in Papua New Guinea along most northern coastal regions, as well as near areas near Lake Murray.

The forecast for East Asia indicates that most regions of China will experience warm anomalies of varying intensity, with the most intense instances occurring in central , western, and northern provinces.

Exceptionally warm anomalies are expected in the following regions:

Western China, appearing throughout most areas of southwestern Tibet.
Central China, spread throughout most of the Yangtze River Basin.
Northern China, in western regions of Inner Mongolia, in areas northwest of the Huang River.
Japan, in central to northern areas of the island of Honshu, as well as southern areas of the island of Hokkaido.

Severe to extreme warm anomalies are expected in:

Southwestern China, in areas surrounding the city of Hong Kona.
Taiwan, widespread throughout the country.

Australia and New Zealand can expect widespread warm anomalies of varying intensity, with the most intense anomalies appearing along the country’s eastern coast, as well as in pockets across its western territories.

Severe to exceptional warm anomalies are expected in:

Southern Queensland, in eastern regions of the Simpson Desert, and along the region’s eastern coastal areas within the Great Dividing Range.
West-central areas of Western Australia, within the Great Sandy Desert and Gibson Desert.
Tasmania, throughout the country.
Southern New Zealand, throughout most of the South Island. The most intense anomalies are expected along the South Island’s southern coast.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

The precipitation forecast for August 2023 anticipates small concentrations of notable surplus in eastern and central Asian regions, with more intense deficits occurring in northern South America, central Africa, the Middle East, and southern Asia.

The United States can expect mild to moderate surplus anomalies in northern to northern-central states, with similarly intense deficits appearing in some southeastern states.

The following states can anticipate wetter than normal conditions:

Wyoming, throughout much of the state.
Montana, continuing throughout most of the state, moving further south into Nebraska and Kansas.
Northeast Utah, near the Uintah and Ouray Reservation.
Central Oregon, near the Warm Springs Reservation.

States that are expected to endure drier than normal conditions include:

Southwest Mississippi, near Amite County and spreading west into eastern to southeastern Louisiana, east of Marksville.
Southern Alabama, east of the city of Mobile.
Hawaii, with mild to moderate deficits appearing throughout most of the state.

Though Canada exhibits more uncertainty than usual for precipitation anomalies, small areas of western and eastern provinces can expect mild to moderate deficits.

Drier than normal conditions are expected in the following provinces:

Western coastal regions of British Columbia.
Central Quebec, in regions north of Lake Mistassini.

Wetter than normal conditions are expected in:

Northern Nunavut, throughout regions in the Northwestern Passages, as well as the Queen Elizabeth Islands.

For Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, most regions are expected to experience normal conditions, with some intense deficits occurring across Mexico and Central America.

The following countries can expect drier than normal conditions:

Northwestern and central Mexico, within the state of Sonora, as well as near Mexico City.
Central Guatemala, in areas east of Lake Izabal.
El Salvador, throughout most of the country.

Wetter than normal conditions are expected in the following countries:

Cuba, in western and central regions of the country.
Dominican Republic, throughout the majority of the country.
The Bahamas, across most of the area.

South America is expected to experience intense deficits throughout much of the Guianas, with some notable surpluses appearing in regions of eastern South America.

The following countries are forecast to experience drier than normal conditions:

The Guianas, with the most intense anomalies occurring in northern coastal regions of Suriname and French Guiana.
Northern Venezuela, in northern coastal regions near the city of Caracas.
Northern Brazil, spreading across most of the state of Amapa.
Northeastern Argentina, within the Buenos Aires province.

The following regions can anticipate wetter than usual conditions:

Central Argentina, in the Chubut province.
Brazil, widespread throughout central regions of the country.
Western coastal regions of Ecuador.

Europe is expected to observe mild to moderate surplus across northern countries of Continental Europe.

Wetter than normal conditions are anticipated in the following regions:

Sweden, covering the majority of the country’s northern regions.
Western coastal regions to central areas of Finland.
Throughout most of the Baltics.

The forecast for Africa anticipates isolated areas of intense deficit in central regions of Africa and notable pockets of surpluses in northwestern and southern Africa.

Wetter than normal conditions are anticipated in:

Algeria, crossing the country’s northwestern border into central and southern regions of Morocco.
Isolated areas along the northern border of Mauritania.
Throughout Gabon, the Republic of Congo, and southern Cameroon.

Deficits are anticipated in the following areas:

Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, into the Central African Republic, and southern South Sudan.
In pockets across northeastern Ethiopia, in western Eritrea, and throughout Djibouti.

The Middle East is expected to observe small, concentrated deficit anomalies in northern areas of the region, as well as pockets of moderate surplus across Iran.

Wetter conditions are expected in:

Western to southwestern Iran, scattered throughout the majority of the country.

Drier than usual areas are forecast in the following areas:

Northeastern Turkey, along northern coastal regions of the Black Sea.
Yemen, covering southern-central regions of the country.
Northern Iran, near Tehran.

Central Asia and Russia can anticipate mostly normal conditions with small areas of notable surpluses in central Asian countries.

Wetter conditions are expected in:

Western Tajikistan, near the capital of Dushanbe.
Eastern Kyrgyzstan, near Issyk Kul.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected across northern and central regions of South Asia.

Drier than normal conditions are anticipated in:

Northern India, along northern borders of the states of Uttarakhand and eastern borders of Himachal Pradesh.

Areas of Mainland Southeast Asia are expected to experience extreme to exceptional deficits.

Countries expected to observe deficits include:

Thailand, appearing in central Sakon Nakhon.
Laos, throughout Dakcheung.
Vietnam, across much of the Quang Ngai province.

The forecast for East Asia anticipates intense surplus in western areas of China, with surpluses of lesser intensity appearing in northeastern regions of the country.

Surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Western China, across northern regions of the Tibet province, and southern areas of the Xinjiang province.
Northeastern China, within the Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning provinces.

Australia and New Zealand can anticipate mostly normal conditions, with precipitation surpluses appearing in southwestern regions of the continent, and mild to moderate deficits in its eastern regions.

Wetter conditions are expected in:

Southwestern Western Australia, appearing in areas east of Perth and into Cape Arid National Park.

Drier conditions are anticipated in the following areas:

Southeastern Queensland, near the city of Brisbane.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released Month 2, 2023 which includes forecasts for Month 2023 through Month 2023 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued Month 25 through Month 31, 2023.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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