The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2019 through May 2020 include: Canada, Brazil, French Guiana, Chile, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Libya, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the United States, Tanzania, India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and southeastern and northeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 9 September 2019
The forecast through July indicates that the extent of exceptional water deficits on the continent will shrink somewhat but deficits will dominate much of the northern bulk. Exceptional deficits are forecast for French Guiana, Suriname, and southern Venezuela, central Brazil, the southern Amazon Basin, many Brazilian rivers, and along the Pacific Coast from Lima through the Atacama Desert. Surpluses are expected to increase in Paraguay and will be exceptional in central Paraguay.
The April Outlook indicates a forecast of warmer than normal temperatures in many parts of the world, and regions with especially widespread or intense anomalies include Siberia, Alaska, Thailand, Sri Lanka, around the Gulf of Guinea in Africa, and through much of the Andes in South America. Areas forecast to be wetter than normal include northern Africa and pockets of the Middle East.
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