Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E ...

The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists ...

The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in N, SE Australia
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge ...

The forecast anticipates a widespread emergence of surplus in India, with the most intense concentrations appearing in central, southern, and eastern regions of the country. Exceptional deficits are expected in regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge throughout India

Barcoo River

Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits persist across northern Australia & in New Caledonia

Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits persist across northern Australia & in New Caledonia

Water deficits are forecast to persist across parts of northern Australia – particularly northernmost regions of the Northern Territory and the southern shore of the Gulf of Carpentaria – and also in the southwest tip of Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Caledonia. From July through September surpluses are forecast to persist near the Barcoo and Fitzroy Rivers in Queensland, and emerge west of Brisbane. Surpluses will continue to emerge north of Adelaide east of Spencer Gulf in South Australia, and will emerge in the center of New South Wales. 

Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits persist in the North, Tasmania, & North Island

Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits persist in the North, Tasmania, & North Island

Water deficits are forecast to linger for the next six months across parts of northern Australia – particularly the northernmost regions of the Northern Territory and the southern shore of the Gulf of Carpentaria – and also in the southwest tip of Western Australia; Tasmania; and North Island, New Zealand. Moderate surpluses are forecast in August and September along the Macquarie and Lachlan Rivers in New South Wales. Current surpluses farther north in eastern Queensland are expected to persist, and surpluses are forecast to emerge along the Barcoo River in November.

Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits linger in the north, near Perth, Tasmania, North Island

Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits linger in the north, near Perth, Tasmania, North Island

Water deficits are forecast to linger for the next six months across parts of northern Australia – particularly Arnhem Land and along the Gulf of Carpentaria – and also from Perth southward; in Tasmania; on North Island, New Zealand; and in New Caledonia. A transition from moderate deficits to moderate surpluses in the Darling and Murray Rivers and their tributaries is forecast from August on.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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