The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast through September indicates mild water deficits in much of Australia with more intense anomalies in Tasmania, surrounding Melbourne, in the eastern Murray-Darling Basin, and reaching north to the Darling Downs and Brisbane. In New Zealand, deficits are forecast on North Island. Extreme to exceptional deficits will persist in New Caledonia.
Widespread, exceptional water deficits observed in recent months in Australia are forecast to nearly disappear, though intense deficits will persist in Tasmania and near Busselton, WA. Through April, primarily moderate deficits are forecast from the Eyre Peninsula in South Australia through much of Victoria and into New South Wales; for central Queensland to the Gulf of Carpentaria; and, northwest to Darwin, where deficits may be more severe. Deficits are expected to retreat significantly in New Zealand, but will continue to emerge in New Caledonia.
Exceptional deficits observed in recent months are forecast to nearly disappear, though intense deficits will persist in western Tasmania and the southwestern tip of Western Australia. The near-term forecast includes moderate deficits in South Australia, becoming more intense past the Eyre Peninsula and along Victoria’s coast. Moderate deficits are expected in the eastern Murray-Darling Basin which may be more severe in Riverina, and moderate deficits are forecast for New Zealand. After March, deficits will be mild overall but more severe in Busselton, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Recent exceptional water deficits in Australia are forecast to diminish considerably overall, but persist in Tasmania and the southwestern tip of Western Australia. In the near-term, deficits are expected in much of South Australia, eastern New South Wales, and along Australia’s southeastern coast where deficits may be intense. Exceptional surpluses are forecast near Bundaberg, Queensland. After January, intense deficits will emerge in southwest Queensland and into New South Wales and South Australia. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast elsewhere in Queensland and in southeastern Australia.
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