The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates persistent, widespread water surpluses in Afghanistan with exceptional surpluses around Mazar-e Sharif and from Kandahar to Kabul. Exceptional deficits will emerge in southwestern Pakistan. In India, mild deficits or normal water conditions are forecast for most of the country, with moderate deficits in Kerala, northern Tamil Nadu, southeastern Madhya Pradesh, and Uttaranchal. Moderate surpluses will emerge in central Gujarat.
The forecast through July indicates exceptional water deficits in coastal Maharashtra, and severe to extreme deficits in a vast stretch across central India including much of Madya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and southern Odisha. In the south, deficits will downgrade in Tamil Nadu but intensify in Karnataka. Surpluses will remain intense and widespread across central Afghanistan. Exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Pakistan.
Through February, exceptional water deficits are forecast in India from Gujarat through Maharashtra and Karnataka, and deficits of varying severity in many regions south of the Gangetic Plain and to the west in Rajasthan. In Pakistan, isolated intense deficits are possible in Karachi. Moderate deficits are forecast in northern Afghanistan, but conditions may be intense northeast of Kabul and along the Harirud River in the west. In Bangladesh, exceptional surpluses are forecast in Chittagong.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2018 through July 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Amazonas (Brazil), Chile, Germany, Finland, Latvia, Egypt, western Cambodia, and southeastern Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas (US), Liberia, Paraguay, Myanmar, and Heilongjiang (China). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 12 November 2018.
Through May 2018 intense water deficits are forecast in central India and intense water surpluses in Bangladesh. In the near-term through February, deficits are forecast throughout most of India with exceptional deficits expected in eastern Gujarat and Karnataka. Exceptional surpluses are expected in West Bengal, Tripura, Mizoram, eastern Jammu and Kashmir, and the Pennar River Basin in southern India. Moderate deficits are forecast for Pakistan and Afghanistan with some pockets of exceptional deficit in the northeast. Surpluses are forecast for western Bhutan and much of Nepal.
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